韩明慧, 方虹霁, 杨东见, 姜晨彦, 陈传炜, 王和兴. 国外新型冠状病毒肺炎发病的现状和趋势分析[J]. 上海预防医学, 2020, 32(3): 211-215. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2020.20063
引用本文: 韩明慧, 方虹霁, 杨东见, 姜晨彦, 陈传炜, 王和兴. 国外新型冠状病毒肺炎发病的现状和趋势分析[J]. 上海预防医学, 2020, 32(3): 211-215. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2020.20063
HAN Ming-hui, FANG Hong-ji, YANG Dong-jian, JIANG Chen-yan, CHEN Chuan-wei, WANG He-xing. Current situation and trend of coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) in foreign countries[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2020, 32(3): 211-215. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2020.20063
Citation: HAN Ming-hui, FANG Hong-ji, YANG Dong-jian, JIANG Chen-yan, CHEN Chuan-wei, WANG He-xing. Current situation and trend of coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) in foreign countries[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2020, 32(3): 211-215. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2020.20063

国外新型冠状病毒肺炎发病的现状和趋势分析

Current situation and trend of coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) in foreign countries

  • 摘要:
    目的了解国外新型冠状病毒肺炎的发病现状和趋势。
    方法收集国外2020年1月20日—2月18日新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例的数据,按年龄、性别、国籍、接触史、地区、国家进行分层分析和发病时间趋势分析。
    结果1月20日—2月18日,国外新型冠状病毒肺炎累计确诊病例数804例,除去日本“钻石公主号”邮轮上的454例,每日新增病例数波动性较大,呈现出先上升后保持平稳波动的趋势;新增病例数的最高点日期为2月1日,发病例数为26例。确诊病例主要集中于亚洲国家,但在欧洲、北美洲、大洋洲和非洲地区也有分布。截至2月15日,发现确诊病例的国家数达到25个后再无增加,其中新加坡、日本和泰国是确诊病例数最多的国家,分别为77、65和35例。在可收集到基本信息的确诊病例中,有相关确诊病例接触史的病例多于具有湖北居住或旅行史的确诊病例,而且非中国国籍、年龄40岁及以上和男性较多。
    结论新型冠状病毒在国外已发生传播,而且产生第二代病例,发病人数虽少,但发病趋势波动较大,仍需警惕病毒进一步加大扩散的可能。

     

    Abstract:
    ObjectiveTo investigate the current situation and trends of coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) in foreign countries.
    MethodsThe data on confirmed COVID-19 cases were collected between January 20, 2020 and February 18, 2020 and stratified by age, sex, nationality, contact history, region, and country along the onset date of cases.
    ResultsFrom January 20th to February 18th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases abroad was 804.Excluding the 454 cases on the "Diamond Princess" cruise ship in Japan, the daily number of new cases fluctuated, showing a trend of rising first and then maintaining a steady trend.The most new cases occurred on February 1, numbering 26.The confirmed cases were mainly concentrated in Asian countries, but also distributed in Europe, North America, Oceania and Africa.As of February 15, the cumulative number of countries with confirmed cases reached 25 and no more countries were reported until February 18.Singapore, Japan, and Thailand were the countries with the highest number of cases, with 77, 65, and 35 cases, respectively.Based on the available information on confirmed cases, more confirmed cases were found with contact history and more were non-Chinese nationalities, 40 years old and above, and male gender than those with a history of living or traveling in Hubei, Chinese nationalities, below 40 years old, and female gender.
    ConclusionThe novel coronavirus has transmitted abroad, produced second-generation cases.Although the total number of cases is small, the temporal trend of incidence fluctuates greatly.Therefore, sufficient attention should be paid to the possibility of further transmission.

     

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