2015—2024年重庆市九龙坡区水痘流行特征

Epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Jiulongpo District, Chongqing, 2015-2024

  • 摘要: 目的 了解重庆市九龙坡区水痘流行特征,为科学防控水痘的措施制定提供理论依据。方法 运用描述性流行病学方法对2015—2024年重庆市九龙坡区水痘报告病例资料进行分析,描述其三间分布特征,利用Holt-Winters乘法模型对2025年1—6月水痘发病数进行预测。结果 重庆市九龙坡区2015—2014年共报告水痘病例10 618例,无死亡病例,年均报告发病率为85.88/10万,历年报告发病率为54.20/10万~132.98/10万。水痘发病呈季节性双峰分布,10—12月为主高峰,5—6月为次高峰。发病男女比例为1.11:1,报告病例主要集中在5~14岁的学生群体,全区各镇街均有水痘病例报告,发病率居前3位的是杨家坪街道、黄桷坪街道和华岩镇。水痘突发公共卫生事件均发生在学校,疫情主要在5—6月和10—12月,与水痘发病群体和月份分布一致。Holt-Winters乘法模型预测结果显示,2025年4—6月发病数逐渐增多。1~14岁儿童第1剂次水痘疫苗年均接种率为12.03%,呈现先上升后波动下降趋势(P<0.001);第2剂次年均接种率为8.06%,呈现波动上升趋势(P<0.001)。结论 2015—2024年重庆市九龙坡区水痘报告发病率高于全国平均水平,发病呈季节性双峰分布,主要发生在5~14岁年龄组的学生群体,目前水痘疫苗接种率低无法形成有效免疫屏障,预测2025年4—6月水痘发病数逐渐增多。建议继续加强对学校等重点场所、学生等重点人群的防控措施落实力度和疫苗接种宣传,提高水痘疫苗接种率,同时可以利用国家前置软件、重庆市疫智防控系统提高监测敏感性,严防突发公共卫生事件的发生。

     

    Abstract: Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Jiulongpo District, Chongqing, from 2015 to 2024, and to provide a scientific basis for formulating targeted prevention and control measures. Methods A descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the data on reported varicella cases in Jiulongpo District, Chongqing from 2015 to 2024, and to describe its distribution characteristics. The Holt-Winters multiplicative model was used to predict the number of varicella cases from January to June 2025. Results A total of 10 618 cases of varicella were reported from 2015 to 2024 in Jiulongpo District, with no death. The annual incidence ranged from 54.20/100 000 to 132.98/100 000, with an average annual incidence rate of 85.88/100 000. The incidence of varicella showed a bimodal seasonal distribution, with a major peak occurring from October to December and a secondary peak from May to June. The male-to-female ratio of cases was 1.11 to 1. Most cases occurred among students aged 5-14 years. Cases were reported in all townships, with the top three areas in terms of incidence being Yangjiaping, Huangjueping, and Huayan. All varicella-related public health emergencies occurred in schools, primarily during May-June and October-December, consistent with the overall temporal and population distribution of cases. The Holt-Winters multiplicative model predicted a gradual increase in varicella cases from April to June. Among children aged 1-14 years, the average annual vaccination rate of the first dose of varicella vaccine was 12.03%, showing an initial rise followed by a fluctuating decline (P<0.001), while the second-dose vaccination rate averaged 8.06%, showing a fluctuating upward trend (P<0.001). Conclusion From 2015 to 2024, the reported incidence of varicella in Jiulongpo District was higher than the national average. The incidence of varicella showed a bimodal seasonal distribution and mainly affected students aged 5-14 years old. At present, the vaccination coverage remains low, insufficient to form an effective herd immunity. The incidence of varicella is projected to gradually increase between April and June 2025. It is necessary to further strengthen prevention and control measures in key settings such as schools and among student populations, enhance vaccination promotion to improve coverage rates, and utilize national pre-warning software and the Chongqing intelligent epidemic prevention and control system to improve surveillance sensitivity and prevent public health emergencies.

     

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