Application of Gail model for assessment on breast cancer risk

Objective To discuss the application value of the Gail model in evaluation of breast cancer risk in Huangpu District, Shanghai.Methods Case-control study was adopted for 156 cases of breast cancer and 198 age-matched controls. From the subjects were collected information of age, history of breast disease, family history, age at menarche, age at first birth, breast biopsy and race. Gail model was used to evaluate the risk of breast cancer for these women 5 years before.Results A total of 72 cases and 11 controls had high risk of breast cancer within 5 years. As the evaluation results of the diagnostic test, the sensitivity of the Gail model was 50.3 percent and the specificity 92.0 percent. The positive predictive value was 86.7 percent and the negative predictive value 64.0 percent (The Chi square was 60.09 and P value 0.000, The McNemar Chi square was 43.90 and P value 0.000). The Youden's index was 0.423. The total agreement was 70.7 percent. Conclusion The Gail model did not achieve the desired results for assessment of population with high risk of breast cancer. The tool needs to be further studied as a tool for screening population with high risk of breast cancer.