宁波市大气可吸入颗粒物对人群死亡短期影响的归因风险评估

贺天锋; 黄婧; 李国星; 谷少华; 张涛; 李辉; 许国章

doi:10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2017.11.008

宁波市大气可吸入颗粒物对人群死亡短期影响的归因风险评估

Short-term risk assessment on mortality due to ambient particulate matter in Ningbo City

摘要

摘要:
目的评估宁波市大气可吸入颗粒物(PM₁₀)短期暴露造成人群死亡的归因风险。
方法收集宁波市2011—2015年人群死亡、空气污染和气象资料，利用时间序列研究方法和分布滞后非线性模型，分析PM₁₀短期暴露造成人群死亡的超额危险度、归因死亡人数和人群归因分值。
结果PM₁₀短期浓度升高与人群死亡数增加相关，效应存在明显的滞后性和持续性，日均浓度每升高10 μg/m³，总死亡累积4 d(Lag0~3)的超额危险度为0.35%(95%CI:0.16%~0.53%)。宁波市2011—2015年归因于PM₁₀短期暴露的总死亡人数为3 972例(95%CI：1 877~6 032)，人群归因分值为2.15%(95%CI：1.02%~3.27%)。呼吸系统疾病对PM₁₀更为敏感，其归因死亡人数和人群归因分值分别为1 323例(95%CI：619~1 990)和4.68%(95%CI：2.19%~7.03%)；女性和高年龄组人群的归因风险分别高于男性和低年龄组。如果将PM₁₀日均浓度控制在150 μg/m³和100 μg/m³限值以内，人群归因风险将分别下降25.45%和53.07%。
结论PM₁₀浓度变化对健康有较大的影响，应立即采用有效的控制措施。

Abstract:
ObjectiveTo estimate the short-term risk on mortality attributable to ambient inhalable particulate matter (PM₁₀) in Ningbo City.
MethodsThe daily data on mortality, air pollution and meteorological factors were collected from 2011 to 2015 in Ningbo City. A time series study using a distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was used to estimate the excess risk, attributable number and fraction for the short-term effect of PM₁₀on mortality.
ResultsThe study showed that short-term exposure of ambient particulate matters were associated with an increased risk of daily mortality, and the effect had lags and persistence. A 10 μg/m³ increase of PM₁₀in lag 0~3 days was associated with a 0.35%(95%CI:0.16%~0.53%)increase in total mortality.From 2011 to 2015, the attributable number due to short-term exposure of PM₁₀ was 3972 (95%CI:1 877~6 032) for total mortality in Ningbo city, while the attributable fraction was 2.15% (95%CI:1.02%~3.27%).Compared with other diseases, more attributable deaths in respiratory mortality, with a fraction of 4.68%(95%CI:2.19%~7.03%)corresponding to 1 323 deaths (95%CI:619-1 990). The attributable risk for female and elderly were more than that for male and young people, respectively. If the daily concentration of PM₁₀ limits in 150 μg/m³ and 100 μg/m³, its corresponding attribute risk will decrease 25.45% and 53.07%.
ConclusionsThere is significant health impact attributable to short-term PM₁₀ exposure. More efforts should be devoted to reduction of air pollution immediately.

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