吴婷, 陈曦, 刘妹, 陈一凡, 刘文斌, 殷建华, 曹广文. 中国上海市与美国纽约市新型冠状病毒流行趋势对比分析[J]. 上海预防医学, 2022, 34(11): 1096-1100. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2022.22199
引用本文: 吴婷, 陈曦, 刘妹, 陈一凡, 刘文斌, 殷建华, 曹广文. 中国上海市与美国纽约市新型冠状病毒流行趋势对比分析[J]. 上海预防医学, 2022, 34(11): 1096-1100. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2022.22199
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WU Ting, CHEN Xi, LIU Mei, CHEN Yifan, LIU Wenbin, YIN Jianhua, CAO Guangwen. Comparative analysis of epidemiological trends of COVID-19 in Shanghai and New York City[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2022, 34(11): 1096-1100. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2022.22199
Citation: WU Ting, CHEN Xi, LIU Mei, CHEN Yifan, LIU Wenbin, YIN Jianhua, CAO Guangwen. Comparative analysis of epidemiological trends of COVID-19 in Shanghai and New York City[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2022, 34(11): 1096-1100. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2022.22199
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中国上海市与美国纽约市新型冠状病毒流行趋势对比分析

Comparative analysis of epidemiological trends of COVID-19 in Shanghai and New York City

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 通过与纽约市的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展趋势进行对比，分析上海市在2022年3—5月新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情中采取的防疫措施对疫情发展的影响，并对上海市此次的防疫措施进行评价。
    方法 收集上海市卫生健康委员会和美国疾病控制与预防中心（CDC）官方网站公布的每日新增确诊病例，每日新增无症状感染者，每日新增死亡病例，进行流行病学描述性研究。
    结果 上海市在3月1日至5月17日，每日新增无症状感染者最多达到每日新增确诊病例的58倍，上海市每日新增确诊病例数基本低于纽约市同期。在疫情高峰期，上海市每日罹患率增长速度显著低于纽约市（P<0.05），每日新增死亡人数明显低于纽约市。此外，上海市老龄人口（年龄≥60岁）疫苗接种率明显低于纽约市（年龄≥65岁）。
    结论 上海市暴发的新冠肺炎疫情与纽约市在2021年12月之后流行的新型冠状病毒都属于Omicron（奥密克戎）变异株，与Delta变异株相比，病毒的复制能力更强，传播速度更快，为上海与纽约这类人口密集的超大型城市的防疫工作带来了巨大的挑战。上海市在采取了严格的隔离防疫策略后，疫情得到了快速有效的控制，而纽约市因为没有采取有效的防疫措施，疫情依然非常严峻。随着病毒的不断进化，以及外部输入压力的不断增大，今后我国的防疫策略需要根据不同的情况进行适当的调整。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To assess the effects of countermeasures against coronavirus disease 2019 （COVID-19） in Shanghai from March to May 2022 in comparison with epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in New York City.
    Methods Daily confirmed cases， asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers， and daily deaths were obtained in the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention （CDC） of the United States. Descriptive study was conducted by using these data.
    Results From March 1 to May 17， the number of daily asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections in Shanghai was up to 58 times as large as that of daily confirmed cases； however， the number of daily confirmed cases in Shanghai was generally less than that in New York in the same time period. At the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic， the growth of daily attack rate in Shanghai was significantly lower than that in New York （P<0.05）. Moreover， the number of daily death was evidently less than that in New York. In addition， the vaccination rate in the elderly （aged ≥60 years） in Shanghai was evidently lower than that in New York （aged ≥65 years）.
    Conclusion The COVID-19 epidemics in Shanghai from March to May 2022 and in New York after December 2021 were both caused by the Omicron variant. Compared with the Delta variant， the Omicron variant has stronger replication ability and infectivity， resulting in challenges to the containment of the epidemic in metropolis such as Shanghai and New York City. The epidemic in New York City remained crucial due to absence of effective countermeasures， while that in Shanghai has been effectively contained with strict countermeasures. The prevention and control strategies may be adjusted along with the continual evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and increasing trend of imported COVID-19 cases.

     

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