晋珊, 方博, 蔡任之, 钱耐思, 虞慧婷, 乔佳颖, 陈蕾, 王春芳. 上海市人口死亡率变化与城市发展水平的动态关系研究[J]. 上海预防医学, 2023, 35(7): 654-659. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2023.22740
引用本文: 晋珊, 方博, 蔡任之, 钱耐思, 虞慧婷, 乔佳颖, 陈蕾, 王春芳. 上海市人口死亡率变化与城市发展水平的动态关系研究[J]. 上海预防医学, 2023, 35(7): 654-659. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2023.22740
JIN Shan, FANG Bo, CAI Renzhi, QIAN Naisi, YU Huiting, QIAO Jiaying, CHEN Lei, WANG Chunfang. Dynamic relationship between changes of mortality rate and urban development level in Shanghai[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2023, 35(7): 654-659. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2023.22740
Citation: JIN Shan, FANG Bo, CAI Renzhi, QIAN Naisi, YU Huiting, QIAO Jiaying, CHEN Lei, WANG Chunfang. Dynamic relationship between changes of mortality rate and urban development level in Shanghai[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2023, 35(7): 654-659. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2023.22740

上海市人口死亡率变化与城市发展水平的动态关系研究

Dynamic relationship between changes of mortality rate and urban development level in Shanghai

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析上海市城市发展与人口死亡率之间的动态响应关系,预测人口死亡率变化趋势。
    方法 利用1978—2017年上海市人口死亡率(TMR)、国内生产总值(GDP)及社会人口发展指数(SDI)等数据,构建向量自回归(VAR)模型,评估城市发展对人口死亡率的影响程度。
    结果 VAR(2)模型拟合的R2=0.92。GDP对人口死亡水平改善的短期效应为负,长期效应为正;SDI无论短期还是长期均为负效应。到第10年,GDP和SDI对TMR变化的贡献率分别为10.61%和27.25%。模型预测显示,至2030年上海人口死亡率为9.17‰。
    结论 长期的经济增长可以有效促进人口死亡率下降,但在大力发展经济的同时,不可忽视人口发展“高水平时代”下少子老龄化趋势对人口健康的不利影响。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the dynamic response relationship between urban development and mortality rate in Shanghai, and to predict the trend of mortality rate changes.
    Methods By analyzing the total mortality rate (TMR), gross domestic product (GDP) and socio-demographic index (SDI) in Shanghai from 1978 to 2017, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model was constructed to evaluate the impact of urban development on the mortality rate.
    Results The fitted R2 of the VAR model was 0.92. The short-term effect of GDP on the improvement of death level was negative, while the long-term effect was positive, and the SDI was negative regardless of the short-term and long-term effects. By the tenth year, GDP and SDI contributed 10.61% and 27.25% to TMR changes, respectively. The model predicted that the mortality rate in Shanghai would be 9.17 per thousand by 2030.
    Conclusion Long-term economic growth can effectively promote a decline in population mortality. However, as the economy develops vigorously, the adverse effects of declining birth rates and population aging on population health during the era of high-level population development should not be ignored.

     

/

返回文章
返回