Analysis on the variation trend for the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in Chongming County of Shanghai

ObjectiveTo investigate the variation trend of the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in rural areas of Shanghai and to predict the incidence trend of lung cancer thereof in future according to existing data.

MethodsThe data of lung cancer incidence and mortality as well as the demographic data in Chongming County from 1998 to 2013 were collected. The crude incidence rate and mortality data, age-specific incidence rate and mortality data, standardized incidence and mortality of he world population, the annual percentage change (APC) were calculated to analyze the annual variation trend of the incidence and mortality thereof.

ResultsThere were 7 275 new lung cancer cases in Chongming County from 1998 to 2013. The crude incidence thereof was 81.33/10⁵, of which 122.36/10⁵ was for males and 41.20/10⁵ was for females, with the crude incidence thereof for males being significantly higher than that for females. From 1998 to 2013, the APC of lung cancer incidence was 1.70% for males, and 4.97% for females. The standardized incidence thereof for both males and females tended to slow down. The growth rate of the incidence thereof for females was higher than that for males. The growth rate of the incidence thereof for the elderly population group aged 65 or above was higher than that for the young and middle-aged population groups. There were 6 102 death cases of lung cancer in Chongming County from 1998 to 2013. The crude mortality rate thereof was 68.22/10⁵, with 103.91/10⁵ applicable for males and 33.30/10⁵ applicable for females, which indicated that the crude mortality rate thereof for males was significantly higher than that for females. From 1998 to 2013, the APC for the mortality rate of lung cancer was 2.01% for males and 4.54% for females. The growth rate of the mortality rate thereof for females was higher than that for males. The growth rate of the mortality rate thereof for the elderly female population group aged 65 or above was higher than that for the elderly male population group of the same age range.

ConclusionThe increase of the crude incidence rate of lung cancer in Chongming County can mainly be attributed to the aging of the population. Timely and effective preventive measures therefor will help to reduce the incidence and mortality rates thereof in this area.