Mortality analysis and time trend of prostate cancer in China from 2004 to 2008

ObjectiveTo obtain the temporal and spatial trends on prostate cancer mortality in China from 2004 to 2018.

MethodsThe data of prostate cancer mortality was collected from 605 national disease surveillance sites and age-standardized according to the demographic structure of China in 2000. The crude mortality rate （CMR） and age-standardized mortality rate （ASMR）， and the ratio of ASMRs of rural to urban areas（RR）， were calculated to analyze the distributions of the mortality of prostate cancer stratified by age， sex， region （rural/urban areas， eastern/central/western areas） or time.

ResultsThe temporal trend on the CMR of prostate cancer from 2004 to 2018 increased significantly （APC=5.23%，P<0.001）， whereas the trend on the ASMR did not change （APC=0.65%，P=0.336）. The ASMR of urban areas was higher than that of rural areas（P<0.05）. The temporal trend on the ASMR of urban or rural did not change（P>0.05）. The same trend was detected for the RR value （P>0.05）. The ASMR of eastern urban areas was higher than that of the central or the western urban areas. The ASMR of eastern rural areas was higher than that of central and western areas. In the eastern areas， both the temporal trends for the ASMRs of the urban and the rural increased （The urban： APC=1.6%， P=0.015； the rural： APC=1.02%， P=0.013）. However， the RR values for the East， the Center or the West did not change. The ASMR of the people over 60 years old was higher than that of the people under 60 years old. However， the temporal trends on the ASMRs of the group under 60 years old or the group over 60 years did not change （P>0.05）. The ASMR of the people under 60 years old in 2018 was significantly lower than that in 2004（P=0.004）.

ConclusionA significant correlation exists between the death of prostate cancer and age. The mortality of prostate cancer in urban is higher than that in rural. The current screening strategy for prostate cancer has a limited impact on the prognosis of prostate cancer patients in China. Stratified refinement of prostate cancer screening strategies for people aged over 60 years in urban areas and the causal prophylaxis of prostate cancer are priorities for future prostate cancer prevention and control.