Objective To present the exploration and application of a prospective follow-up research method for acute infectious disease surveillance based on natural community populations， using COVID-19 infection as an example， and to provide a reference for improving the infectious disease surveillance and early warning system.
Methods A multi-stage probability proportional sampling method was employed to sample residents from all communities of 16 administrative districts in Shanghai， with households as the units. A cohort for acute infectious diseases based on natural community populations was established. The baseline survey was conducted for all cohort subjects， and COVID-19 antigen test kits were distributed. From December 21， 2022 to September 30， 2023， prospective follow-up monitoring of COVID-19 antigen and nucleic acid was carried out on the study subjects on a weekly basis. The baseline characteristics and follow-up information of the cohort subjects were described.
Results The cohort for acute infectious diseases included a total of 12 881 subjects， comprising 6 098 males （47.3%） and 6 783 females （52.7%）. The baseline survey revealed that 35.2% （4 540/12 881） of the subjects had a history of COVID-19 infection. During the follow-up period from December 21， 2022 to September 30， 2023， the average incidence density in the cohort was 0.61/person-year， with a higher incidence density in females （0.63/person-year） compared to males （0.59/person-year）. Individuals aged 60 and above （0.64/person-year） and those with underlying health conditions （0.67/person-year） had a higher incidence density. Healthcare workers showed a notably higher incidence density （0.84/person-year） than that in other occupational groups. As of September 30， 2023， a total of 340 subjects in the cohort experienced secondary infections， with a median interval of 170 days between the first and second infections.
Conclusion This study applies cohort study method to acute infectious disease surveillance， providing crucial data support for estimating infection rates and forecasting alerts for acute infectious diseases in the community. This method can be promoted and applied as a new approach for acute infectious disease surveillance.
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