Analysis of the two-child policy's impact on the fertility level of the residents in Yangpu District, Shanghai

ObjectiveTo explore the impact of the two-child policy on the fertility level of residents in Yangpu District.

MethodsBirth registry data were collected from the residents of Yangpu District in Shanghai during January 2015 to December 2018 for the analysis of birth characteristics and its variation after the two-child policy implementation.

ResultsThe total fertility rate was higher than 1 only in 2016 that was 1.04, whereas it was about 0.8 in other three years. The number of the second child increased which was inspired by the policy. However, the increment in the number of second child was far less than the decrease in the first child. From 2015 through 2018, the proportion of second children in the total births with local household registration accounted for 18.84%, 20.03%, 26.29% and 24.35%, respectively. From January 2015 to August 2016, the proportion of second children was on the rise slowly, in which the annual percent change(APC)value was 0.34%(P > 0.05). From September 2016 to May 2017, the proportion of second children had shown an obvious increase, and the APC value was 3.97%(P < 0.05). From June 2017 to December 2018, the proportion of second children was on a downward trend, in which the APC value was -0.97%(P < 0.05).

ConclusionFavorable fertility policy may not reverse the fertility level in Yangpu District, which remains at a very low level.