Evaluation of the effect of meteorological risk forecasting service intervention on acute onset and medical expenses of patients with COPD in Pudong New Area of Shanghai

Objective To evaluate the intervention effect of meteorological risk forecasting service on acute onset and medical expenses of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease（COPD） patients， and to provide scientific basis for the establishment of health management model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease（COPD） patients.

Methods Study subjects were recruited from chronic obstructive pulmonary patients aged ≥40 in Pudong New Area. Propensity score matching method was used to determine the intervention group and the control group. The control group received regular health education and follow-up management， and the intervention group was provided with meteorological and environmental risk forecasting services through WeChat， mobile phone short message service（SMS）and telephone. Finally， a total of 2 589 subjects were included in the analysis， including 1 300 in the intervention group and 1 289 in the control group. General demographic data， past medical history and family history of COPD， COPD related knowledge and practice survey， COPD related symptom assessment， acute onset， health service utilization and medical expenses before and after intervention were collected through questionnaire survey. The differences of acute attack， health service utilization and related medical expenses between the two groups before and after intervention were compared to evaluate the intervention effect.

Results In terms of acute attacks， after intervention， the incidence of acute attacks in the intervention group was lower than that before intervention（χ²=52.901， P<0.001）， and the incidence of acute attacks in the groups with different intervention methods was lower than that before intervention （P<0.001）. WeChat had the best effect， decreasing the incidence by 14.4%， followed by mobile phone SMS SMS decreasing by 12.3%. In terms of utilization of health services， the outpatient rate due to acute attack was lower in the intervention group after intervention than that before intervention （χ²=7.129， P=0.008）， and the outpatient rate due to acute attack was lower in the subjects who received the forecast service through mobile phone SMS than that before intervention （χ²=4.675， P<0.001）. In terms of medical expenses， there was no significant difference between control group and intervention group with different intervention methods before intervention （P>0.05）. After intervention， the difference between the control group and the intervention group with different intervention methods was statistically significant （H=11.864， P<0.05）. The results of multiple comparisons showed that compared with the control group， the average annual medical expenses of patients receiving mobile phone SMS and telephone forecasting services after intervention were lower than those of the control group， and the difference was statistically significant （P<0.05）.

Conclusion Meteorological risk forecasting service can reduce the acute onset of COPD， reduce the rate of consultation and medical expenses due to acute onset， and provide scientific basis for the basic COPD health management model.