Seasonal analysis and trend prediction on bacillary dysentery in Tongzhou District of Nantong City

Objective To study the characteristics of seasonal distribution and explore the prevalence trends of bacillary dysentery in Tongzhou District of Nantong City,Jiangsu Province,and provide scientific basis for prevention and control strategy. Methods The concentration ratio and the circular distribution were used to analyze the seasonality of bacillary dysentery from 2006 to 2013 in Tongzhou District, and the prevalence trend was predicted with GM(1,1) grey model. Results The prevalence of bacillary dysentery was of certain seasonality, and the peak of the incidence was from mid-April to mid-October. According to the prediction model, the incidences predicted in 2014 and 2015 were 3.53/100,000 and 4.49/100,000. Conclusion If there was no large-scale epidemic outbreak, the incidence of bacillary dysentery would rise slightly in 2014 and 2015 in Tongzhou District. Comprehensive prevention and control measures should be undertaken focusing on epidemic seasons.