Delphi method applied for assessment of respiratory infectious disease risk in winter of 2013 and spring of 2014 in Songjiang District of Shanghai

Objective By means of risk assessment, to explore the likelihood, harmfulness, population susceptibility and comprehensive risk in relation to infectious respiratory diseases in late winter of 2013 and early spring of 2014 in Songjiang District of Shanghai, providing the basis for prevention and control of infectious diseases.Methods Delphi method was used and experts were invited to score for designed questions. Infectious respiratory diseases comprehensive risks were evaluated by applying the formula P(Risk)=/3 according to the risk evaluation plan.Results After two rounds of risk evaluation by experts, the coefficient of expert activity was 1.00, the coefficient of authority was 0.70, 0.73 and 0.71 respectively in likelihood, harmfulness and susceptibility, and the coefficient of coordination was 0.68, 0.65 and 0.67 respectively. The viewpoints of experts tended to be consistent. Comprehensive analysis showed that the risk of influenza was high, and tuberculosis, HFMD, influenza A H7N9 avian influenza, smallpox and influenza A H1N1 avian influenza were relatively high too, while the risk of measles, scarlet fever, mumps were moderate.Conclusion During late winter of 2013 and early spring of 2014 in Songjiang District, close attention should be paid to the risk of influenza, tuberculosis, HFMD, influenza A H7N9 avian influenza, smallpox and influenza A H1N1 avian influenza. And it is important that emergency plans should be formulated or improved, drills carried out periodically, and experience and lessons summarized.