刘念, 张兆文, 潘金花, 王伟炳, 刘小华. 20092020年上海市闵行区猩红热与气象因素的相关性研究[J]. 上海预防医学, 2022, 34(9): 870-873. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2022.21873
引用本文: 刘念, 张兆文, 潘金花, 王伟炳, 刘小华. 20092020年上海市闵行区猩红热与气象因素的相关性研究[J]. 上海预防医学, 2022, 34(9): 870-873. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2022.21873
LIU Nian, ZHANG Zhaowen, PAN Jinhua, WANG Weibing, LIU Xiaohua. The relationship between scarlet fever and meteorological factors in Minhang DistrictShanghai2009‒2020[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2022, 34(9): 870-873. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2022.21873
Citation: LIU Nian, ZHANG Zhaowen, PAN Jinhua, WANG Weibing, LIU Xiaohua. The relationship between scarlet fever and meteorological factors in Minhang DistrictShanghai2009‒2020[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2022, 34(9): 870-873. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2022.21873

20092020年上海市闵行区猩红热与气象因素的相关性研究

The relationship between scarlet fever and meteorological factors in Minhang DistrictShanghai2009‒2020

  • 摘要:
    目的 研究上海市闵行区猩红热发病与气象因素的关系,为建立预防控制猩红热疫情的预警系统提供科学依据。
    方法 猩红热疫情数据来自中国疾病预防控制信息系统,气象数据来自上海市闵行区气象局。利用R3.6.1软件,采用广义可加模型研究猩红热发病与气象因素的关系。
    结果 闵行区2009—2020年间,猩红热的发病人数在2011年有个快速上升的过程。猩红热的发病数与风速呈负相关关系,风速越大,猩红热发病越少;与气温和气压呈非线性的关系,月平均气温<17 ℃时,猩红热的发病数随着气温的上升而增加,气温>17 ℃时,猩红热的发病数随着气温的上升而减少;气压<1 017 MPa时,猩红热的发病数随着气压的上升而减少,气压>1 017 MPa时,猩红热的发病数随着气压的上升而增加。
    结论 猩红热发病与风速呈负相关,建议采取开窗通风换气等措施减少猩红热疾病的发生。猩红热的发病与气温和气压存在非线性关系。为更好地了解闵行区猩红热的流行趋势提供了科学的参考信息,有助于建立疾病预警系统,加强对疾病危险因素的积极预防和干预,减轻因疫情为社会带来的负担。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To study the relationship between scarlet fever and meteorological factors in Minhang District, Shanghai, and provide scientific basis for prevention and control of scarlet fever and establishment of a scarlet fever early warning system.
    Methods Data of the a scarlet fever epidemic were obtained from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System, and the meteorological data were obtained from Shanghai Minhang Meteorological Bureau. A generalized additive model was used to explore the relationship between scarlet fever incidence and meteorological factors in the R3.6.1 software.
    Results Between 2009 and 2020, there was a rapid increase in the incidence of scarlet fever starting from 2011. There was a negative correlation between scarlet fever and wind velocity: the higher the wind velocity, the fewer cases. The correlation of number of cases with air temperature and atmospheric pressure was non-linear. The number of scarlet fever cases was positively correlated with air temperature below 17 degrees Celsius, and negatively correlated with air temperature above 17 degrees Celsius. The number of cases decreased with the increase of atmospheric pressure when atmospheric pressure was less than 1 017 MPa, and increased with the increase of atmospheric pressure when atmospheric pressure was more than 1 017 MPa.
    Conclusion The incidence of scarlet fever is negatively correlated with wind speed, which can be reduced by opening windows for ventilation. The incidence of scarlet fever has a nonlinear relationship with air temperature and air pressure. The findings of this study provide scientific information for better understanding the epidemic trend of scarlet fever in Minhang District, contribute to the establishment of an early warning system, improve the active prevention and intervention of risk factors of the disease, and reduce its social burden.

     

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