Objective To explore the cumulative incidence of diabetes mellitus and its influencing factors among the diabetes mellitus high-risk groups in Minhang District of Shanghai, and to provide a basis for the development of community-based diabetes mellitus early prevention and treatment strategies in Shanghai.

Methods The data of this study were collected from the screening project of diabetes mellitus high-risk groups in Minhang District of Shanghai, which was carried out from 2016‒2017. A total of 12 278 people were screened, of which 10 442 were at high risk based on the results of blood glucose diagnosis except those with diabetes. People diagnosed with abnormal fasting blood glucose, impaired fasting blood glucose and abnormal glucose tolerance were classified into the abnormal blood glucose group, and those with normal fasting blood glucose were classified into the normal blood glucose group. In 2023, the cumulative incidence of diabetes mellitus in the 2 groups was followed up, furthermore, the influencing factors of diabetes mellitus were analyzed.

Results A total of 8 774 cases within the high-risk groups were followed up in 2023, of which 808 cases progressed to diabetes. Of the 8 774 cases, the cumulative incidence of diabetes mellitus in the abnormal blood glucose group (n=2 163) was 16.37% (354/2 163), and that in the normal blood glucose group (n=6 611) was 6.87% (454/ 6 611), and the difference in cumulative incidence of diabetes mellitus between the 2 groups was statistically significant (χ²=175.88, P<0.001). A history of impaired glucose regulation (OR=2.828, 95%CI: 2.177‒3.675), family history of type 2 diabetes (OR=1.294, 95%CI: 1.047‒1.600), hypertension (OR=1.268, 95%CI: 1.083‒1.485), dyslipidemia (OR=1.205, 95%CI: 1.003‒1.448), overweight/obesity (OR=1.526, 95%CI: 1.300‒1.792) were positively correlated with the cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes, while female gender (OR=0.785, 95%CI: 0.675‒0.914) and sedentary lifestyle (OR=0.506, 95%CI: 0.374‒0.685) were negatively correlated with the cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes.

Conclusion Blood glucose monitoring should be strengthened in diabetes mellitus high-risk groups with an impaired glucose regulation history, a family history of type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia, so as to achieve early detection of diabetes. Timely intervention measures should be taken for high-risk population with unhealthy lifestyle or overweight/obesity.