应用调整<b>Serfling</b>回归模型估计北京市手足口病超额病例数

董帅兵; 汪睿彤; 霍达; 刘白薇; 赵好; 高志勇; 王小莉; 杨鹏; 王全意; 张代涛

doi:10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2025.24571

应用调整Serfling回归模型估计北京市手足口病超额病例数

Estimation of the excess cases of hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model

摘要

摘要:
目的建立调整Serfling回归模型，估计2011—2019年北京市手足口病超额病例数和超额流行期，为手足口病防控提供数据支撑和决策依据。
方法利用2011—2019年北京市手足口病周病例数，应用调整Serfling回归模型，拟合2011—2019年北京市手足口病基线及流行阈值，计算超额病例数，判断超额流行期。
结果 2011—2019年，北京市共报告279 306例手足口病病例，主要发病高峰在夏秋季。调整Serfling回归模型拟合R²为0.773，模型估计共出现10个超额流行期，共计92周，主要集中于夏季。2014年超额流行期内超额病例数最高（1 272例，95%CI：990~1 554），占实际病例数的65.04%（95%CI：50.62%~79.46%）。
结论调整Serfling回归模型拟合效果较好，可用于手足口病的早期预警和估计手足口病的疾病负担。

Abstract:
Objective To establish an adjusted Serfling regression model to estimate the excess cases and the excess epidemic period of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, so as to provide data support and decision-making basis for HFMD prevention and control.
Methods The weekly number of HFMD cases in Beijing from 2011 to 2019 was utilized for adjusted the Serfling regression model. Then the adjusted model was used to fit the baseline and epidemic threshold of HFMD in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, calculating the excess cases and determining the excess epidemic period.
Results A total of 279 306 cases of HFMD were reported in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, with the climax of the disease occurring in summer and autumn. After adjusting the fitting R² of the Serfling regression model to 0.773, a total of 10 excess epidemic periods totaling 92 weeks were estimated, mainly occurring in summer. The highest number of excess cases during an excess epidemic period was found in 2014 (1 272 cases, 95%CI: 990‒1 554), accounting for 65.04% of the actual cases (95%CI: 50.62%‒79.46%).
Conclusion The adjusted Serfling regression model fits well and can be utilized for early warning of HFMD and estimating the disease burden caused by HFMD.

HTML全文

参考文献(13)

施引文献

资源附件(0)