Objective To analyze the impact of diabetes-related deaths on the probability of premature mortality and life expectancy in Minhang District of Shanghai from 2004 to 2023, and to provide reference data for the optimization of targeted prevention and control strategies.

Methods All death cases involving diabetes among the registered residents of Minhang District from 2004 to 2023 were collected. The probability of premature mortality and life expectancy was computed using the abridged life table method. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated with Joinpoint 4.9.0.0. The Arriaga decomposition method was employed for statistical analyses of the influence of cause-specific and age-specific mortality related to diabetes on life expectancy.

Results The total number of diabetes-related mortality, crude mortality, and standardized mortality for both males and females in Minhang District from 2004 to 2023 exhibited an increasing trend (P<0.001). The primary causes of death among diabetes-related cases were cardiovascular disease (37.68%), diabetes mellitus (31.95%), and malignant tumor (17.80%). From 2004 to 2023, probability of premature mortality to diabetes-related diseases demonstrated a rising trend (P<0.001), contrasting with the declining trend observed in the overall population (P=0.001). Males showed a significant upward trajectory (P<0.001), while females displayed a stable pattern. Among the diseases exerting considerable influence, cardiovascular disease and malignant tumor revealed a marked increase over time (P<0.001), whereas diabetes mellitus maintained a stable trend; both factors negatively impacted the reduction in probability of premature mortality. From 2004 to 2023, diabetes-related mortality reduced life expectancy among residents by an average of 1.22 years (-49.89%), indicating a negative impact; the reduction was 1.41 years in males and 0.90 years in females. The age groups exhibiting greater negative contributions differed by genders, namely males aged 50‒54 years and females aged 70‒74 years. Cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and malignant tumor contributed significantly to this decline (-0.46 years, -0.42 years, -0.20 years, respectively), with male experiencing higher negative contributions than females.

Conclusion In Minhang District, the rising mortality associated with diabetes-related diseases negatively impact both the reduction of the probability of premature mortality and the increase in life expectancy. This trend is primarily attributed to the rapid escalation of mortality and younger age demographic of male residents, which warrants significant attention. It is recommended that, based on the enhancement of case management, efforts should be directed towards the targeted prevention and control of risk factors and high-risk populations.