20142023年浙江省台州市水痘流行趋势分析

Analyses of varicella epidemic trends in TaizhouZhejiang Province2014‒2023

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2014—2023年浙江省台州市水痘流行特征及变化趋势,为台州市水痘的监测、防控等工作提供依据与线索。
    方法 收集2014—2023年台州市水痘病例个案数据并进行整理,以描述性流行病学方法对水痘的流行特征进行分析,以Joinpoint回归模型分析水痘发病率的变化趋势。
    结果 台州市2014—2023年共报告水痘病例29 845例,年均报告发病率为47.65/10万,全市共报告水痘相关突发事件22起,占同期突发事件总数的13.25%。男性与女性年均报告发病率分别为51.49/10万和43.56/10万,男性年均报告发病率高于女性。发病年龄以5~20岁为主,共报告病例20 382例,占总数的68.29%。人群以学生为主,占总数的62.15%。发病时间呈现明显的季节性分布,11月至次年1月为发病高峰期,5—6月份呈现另一个发病小高峰。全市各地均有水痘病例报告,市辖区、山区县和沿海市年均发病率分别为53.28/10万、50.24/10万、41.46/10万。2014—2023年总人群报告发病率连接点在2019年,呈现2个阶段波动,但差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。不同年龄组的报告发病率变化趋势不同。1~岁组和5~岁组报告发病率未出现连接点,10年间呈现较快的下降趋势(APC=-8.481%,P=0.006;APC=-11.690%,P=0.006);10~岁组2019—2023年出现快速下降趋势(APC=-21.670%,P=0.026);15~岁组和20~岁组第一阶段出现快速上升趋势(APC=20.531%,P=0.001;APC=10.778%,P=0.038)。
    结论 2014—2023年台州市水痘报告发病率男性高于女性,10~岁组年均报告发病率最高,不同区域内报告发病率存在差异,11月至次年1月为发病高峰期。2014— 2023年台州市水痘疫情总体略低于全国平均水平,但同期报告的水痘相关突发事件数处于较高水平,仍须积极开展综合防控措施。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends of varicella in Taizhou, Zhejiang Province from 2014 to 2023, and to provide evidence for surveillance, prevention, and control of varicella in Taizhou.
    Method Individual case data of varicella reported in Taizhou from 2014 to 2023 were collected and analyzed. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the distribution characteristics of varicella, and Joinpoint regression models were applied to assess trends in incidence rates.
    Results A total of 29 845 cases of varicella were reported in Taizhou from 2014 to 2023, with an annual incidence rate of 47.65/100 000. A total of 22 varicella-related public health events were recorded, accounting for 13.25% of all reported outbreaks during the same period. The annual reported incidence rates for males and females were 51.49/100 000 and 43.56/100 000, respectively. The average annual incidence rate was significantly higher in males than that in females. The age of onset was mainly from 5 to 20 years old, with a total of 20 382 cases reported, accounting for 68.29% of the total cases. Students constituted the majority of cases (62.15%). A distinct seasonal pattern was observed, with a major incidence peak from November to January of the next year and a secondary peak period from May to June. Varicella cases were reported in all counties and districts. The average annual incidence rates in urban districts, mountainous counties and coastal cities were 53.28/100 000, 50.24/100 000 and 41.46/100 000, respectively. Joinpoint regression identified 2019 as a turning point in the overall incidence trend, dividing the period into two phases, but the changes in trend of the two phases were not statistically different (P>0.05). Age-specific analyses revealed divergent trends: incidence rates among the 1‒ and 5‒year-old groups showed steady declines over the 10-year period (APC=-8.481%, P=0.006; APC=-11.690%, P=0.006). The incidence rate of 10‒year-old group showed a rapid decreasing trend from 2019 to 2023 (APC=-21.670%, P=0.026). In contrast, the 15‒ and 20‒year-old groups showed significant increases during the first phase (APC=20.531%, P=0.001; APC=10.778%, P=0.038).
    Conclusion From 2014 to 2023, the reported incidence rate of varicella was higher in males than that in females. The highest average annual incidence rate occurred in the 10‒19-year-old age group, with regional variations observed across different areas. The peak incidence period was from November to January of the following year. The overall incidence of varicella in Taizhou was slightly lower than that of the national average level. However, the number of varicella-related outbreaks reported during the same period remained relatively high, underscoring the need for continued and comprehensive prevention and control measures.

     

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