20152024年上海市虹口区流感样病例流行病学特征分析

An analysis of epidemiological characteristics of influenza-like illness in Hongkou District, Shanghai from 2015 to 2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 探究上海市虹口区流感样病例(ILI)流行水平和流行病学特征,追踪病毒变异态势,为精准研判流感流行趋势、及早预警和及时防控提供科学依据。
    方法 收集并整理2015—2024年虹口区ILI和病原学监测数据,并对数据进行统计学分析。
    结果 2015— 2024年虹口区ILI就诊百分比(ILI%)为0.58%,不同年度间差异有统计学意义(χ²=19 280.500,P<0.001),冬季和夏季为流行高峰期。25~<60岁ILI占比最高(38.09%),60岁及以上ILI占比总体呈上升趋势。流感病毒阳性率为17.60%,主要为季节性甲型H3N2亚型(49.78%)和甲型H1N1(30.03%),每年阳性率不同。ILI%变化趋势与流感病毒阳性率相关(r=0.260,P<0.001)。2023—2024年流感活动强度中位数为23.09,高于2015—2019年(H=37.052,P<0.001)和2020—2022年(H=40.436,P<0.001)。
    结论 2015—2022年上海市虹口区ILI%处于较低水平,2023—2024年ILI%明显上升,呈现冬季和夏季2个流行高峰。不同年份流行毒株不同且毒株交替流行。2023—2024年流感活动强度明显增强。需要持续关注其他呼吸道病原体对流感流行的影响,为及时预警和防控提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To explore the epidemic levels and epidemiological characteristics of influenza-like illness (ILI) in Hongkou District of Shanghai, to track the trends in virus mutations, so as to offer a scientific foundation for precisely predicting influenza epidemic trends, providing early alerts, and implementing prompt prevention and control measures.
    Methods Data on ILI and etiological surveillance from Hongkou District between 2015 and 2024 were collected and statistically analyzed.
    Results The consultation percentage of ILI (ILI%) in Hongkou District from 2015 to 2024 was 0.58%, and the differences were statistically significant between different years (χ²=19 280.500, P<0.001), with winter and summer being the prevalence peaks. The highest proportion of ILI cases was observed in the 25‒<60 years age group, and the proportion of cases aged ≥60 years showed an increasing trend. The positive rate for influenza viruses was 17.60%, with seasonal influenza A (H3N2) subtype (49.78%) and influenza A(H1N1) (30.03%) being the predominant strains,and the positive rate was different by years. There was a correlation between ILI% and the positive rate of influenza viruses (r=0.260, P<0.001). The median intensity of influenza activity in 2023‒2024 was 23.09, which was significantly higher than that in 2015‒2019 (H=37.052, P<0.001) and that in 2020‒2022 (H=40.436, P<0.001).
    Conclusion From 2015 to 2022, the ILI% in Hongkou District, Shanghai remained at a relatively low level, but it significantly increased in 2023‒2024, with peaks observed in winter and summer. The predominant influenza virus strains varied and alternated by years. The 2023‒2024 period witnessed an intensified influenza activity. It is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of other respiratory pathogens on influenza epidemic, so as to provide a scientific basis for early warning and prevention and control of influenza.

     

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