大气臭氧污染与60岁及以上老年人群意外伤害发生风险的关联

Association between ambient ozone pollution and the risk of unintentional injuries among the elderly aged 60 and above

  • 摘要:
    目的 探讨上海市大气臭氧(O3)污染对60岁及以上老年人群意外伤害发生的短期健康效应,从而为评估O3造成的疾病负担及制定有效的防治策略提供科学依据。
    方法 收集2022—2024年在上海市急性创伤急救中心接诊的60岁及以上意外伤害当地患者信息及同期上海大气污染物及气象资料。采用广义相加模型(GAM),分析大气O3污染水平与老年人群意外伤害发生风险的关联。以大气O3日最大8 h平均(O3⁃8 h)质量浓度(简称“浓度”)每升高10 μg·m-3,计算意外伤害风险增加的超额危险度(ER)及其95%CI,评估O3对意外伤害发生的健康效应。同时,引入其他大气污染物构建双污染物模型以评估结果的稳健性。
    结果 本研究共纳入60岁及以上老年人群意外伤害患者19 009例,日接诊量的中位数和第25、75百分位数[MP25P75)]为15(9,21)例。2022—2024年大气O3⁃8 h浓度的 MP25P75)为93.00(71.00,122.75)μg·m-3,呈夏季高、冬季低的季节性特征。O3当日(lag0)暴露对意外伤害发生风险的效应最为显著。O3⁃8 h浓度每升高10 μg·m-3,意外事故、跌倒/坠落、交通事故所致伤害的风险分别增加6.69%(95%CI:6.11%~7.28%)、6.62%(95%CI:5.98%~7.26%)和6.69%(95%CI:4.87%~8.53%)。此关联在女性、75岁以下老年人群中更为明显。双污染物模型中,控制其他污染物后,O3仍可增加意外事故、跌倒/坠落、交通事故所致的伤害风险。
    结论 大气O3污染对60岁及以上老年人群意外伤害发生存在短期健康效应,可增加伤害发生风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To explore the short-term health effects of ambient ozone (O₃) pollution on the occurrence of unintentional injuries among the elderly aged 60 and above in Shanghai, so as to provide a scientific basis for assessing the disease burden attributable to ambient O3 pollution and formulating effective prevention strategies.
    Methods Data on local patients with unintentional injuries aged 60 and above treated at Shanghai Acute Trauma Emergency Centers between 2022 and 2024 were collected, along with the daily data of concurrent ambient air pollutants and meteorological variables. A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the association between ambient O₃ pollution levels and the risk of unintentional injuries among the elderly population. The exposure metric was the daily maximum 8-h average O₃ concentration (O3-8 h). The excess risk (ER) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) for unintentional injuries were calculated per 10 μg·m⁻³ increase in O₃-8 h, thereby evaluating the short-term health effects of O3. Furthermore, two-pollutant models were constructed after controlling for other ambient pollutants to evaluate the robustness of the result.
    Results A total of 19 009 unintentional injury cases aged 60 and above were included, with a median (P25, P75) daily admission count of 15 (9, 21) cases. During the research period, the median M (P25, P75) O₃-8 h concentration was 93.00 (71.00, 122.75) μg·m⁻³, exhibiting a seasonal pattern with higher levels in summer and lower levels in winter. Immediate exposure (lag0) showed the strongest association with injuries: per 10 μg·m⁻³ increase in O₃-8 h, the risk of unintentional injuries caused by accidents, falls, and traffic accidents increased by 6.69% (95%CI: 6.11%‒7.28%), 6.62% (95%CI: 5.98%‒7.26%), and 6.69% (95%CI: 4.87%‒8.53%), respectively. The effects were more pronounced in women and adults aged <75 years. In two-pollutant models, O₃ exposure remained significantly associated with increased injury risks after adjusting for other pollutants.
    Conclusion Ambient O₃ pollution has short-term effects on unintentional injuries among the elderly aged 60 and above in Shanghai, elevating the risk of injury occurrence.

     

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