2005—2023年云南省保山市斑疹伤寒时空聚集流行趋势

Analyses of epidemiological trends and spatiotemporal clustering of typhus fever in Baoshan City, Yunnan Province, 2005–2023

  • 摘要: 目的 掌握2005—2023年云南省保山市斑疹伤寒发病情况及时空分布特征,以明确高风险人群和地区,为优化当地防控资源配置、制定因地制宜的干预措施提供科学依据。方法 基于中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病信息管理系统中的2005—2023年保山市斑疹伤寒报告病例数据,采用描述流行病学方法对斑疹伤寒发病的三间分布进行描述,并运用空间动态窗口扫描统计(圆形、椭圆形窗口)、灵活空间扫描统计以及局部空间自相关法(包括局部Moran’sI、局部Geary’sC、Getis-OrdGi*)进行空间聚集性分析,采用回顾性时空扫描统计进行时空聚集性分析。结果 2005—2023年,保山市共报告斑疹伤寒病例1099例,整体发病率达到峰值后先降后升,2007年达到高峰(6.31/10万),2015年降至最低(0.21/10万),2016—2023年有所回升。高发年龄段主要为10岁以下(31.12%),发病前三位的职业为农民、学生和儿童,占所有病例的88.62%。发病时间集中于每年6~9月,施甸县的旧城乡(62.58/10万)、姚关镇(57.15/10万)和甸阳镇(46.81/10万)的发病率较高。空间聚集性分析提示,高风险区域主要在保山市南部并呈现出由南向北转移的趋势。时空扫描结果共检测到5个聚集区,其中最可能聚集区以姚关镇为中心,涵盖10个乡镇(街道),聚集时间为2007—2010年。结论 保山市斑疹伤寒发病呈现季节性和空间聚集特征,发病高峰集中在夏秋季,空间上主要分布于保山市南部的施甸县,尤其是姚关镇、万兴乡、甸阳镇和何元乡等乡镇,且高风险聚集区呈现由南向北的转移趋势。农民、学生和儿童为高风险人群。

     

    Abstract: Objective To understand the incidence and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of typhus fever in Baoshan City, Yunnan Province from 2005 to 2023, to identify high-risk populations and regions, so as to provide a scientific basis for optimizing the allocation of local prevention and control resources and developing targeted intervention measures. Methods Data of typhus fever cases in Baoshan City from 2005 to 2023 were obtained from the Infectious Disease Information Management System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the temporal, spatial and demographic distribution of typhus cases. Spatial clustering was assessed using spatial dynamic window scan statistics (circular and elliptical windows), flexible spatial scan statistics, and local spatial autocorrelation methods (including local Moran’s I, local Geary’s C, and Getis-Ord Gi*). Retrospective spatiotemporal scan statistics were employed to detect spatiotemporal clusters. Results A total of 1 099 typhus cases were reported in Baoshan City from 2005 to 2023. The overall incidence showed a fluctuating trend, characterized by an initial peak,followed by a decline, and subsequently a rebound,. The peak incidence occurred in 2007 (6.31/ 100 000) , dropping to the lowest level in 2015 (0.21/ 100 000), and showing a resurgence from 2016 to 2023. The highest incidence was observed among children under 10 years of age (31.12%), and the top three occupations of cases were farmers, students, and children, accounting for 88.62% of all cases. Cases occurred predominantly between June and September each year. The incidence was relatively high in Jiucheng Town (62.58 / 100 000), Yaoguan Town (57.15 /100 000), and Dianyuan Town (46.81/ 100 000) in Shidian County. Spatial clustering analyses indicated that high-risk areas were mainly located in the southern part of Baoshan City, with a trend of shifting from south to north shift over time. Spatiotemporal scan analyses detected six clusters, with the most likely cluster centered on Yaoguan Town, covering ten towns (streets), and occurring between 2007 and 2010. Conclusion: Typhus in Baoshan City exhibits clear seasonality and spatial clustering. The peak incidence occurs in summer and autumn, with cases primarily distributed in the southern part of Baoshan City, especially in towns of Shidian County such asYaoguan Town, Wanxing Town, Dianyang Town and Heyuan Town. and . High-risk clustering areas show a northward shift over time. Farmers, students, and children are identified as high-risk groups.

     

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