基于Optima HIV模型的某地区艾滋病干预投入的成本效果分析

Cost-effectiveness analysis of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome interventions in an area based on Optima HIV model

  • 摘要:目的】 分析某地区艾滋病防控在不同高危人群、投入水平和分配比例下的成本效果,为艾滋病防控投入资源分配提供参考依据。【方法】 收集2018—2024年某地区研究目标人群的人口学、流行病学、临床进展等参数,以及人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)干预项目的投入成本及干预覆盖率数据,应用Optima HIV模型拟合并预测分析在相同的投入成本时,优化项目的投入分配比例,以及不同投入水平下所产生的效果。【结果】在调整投入总量方面,进一步扩大HIV干预总投入,将降低该地区HIV新发感染和HIV相关死亡,但总投入增加至1.75倍时将呈现投入成本效果的边际饱和效应。在调整投入结构方面,在现有投入总额和1.75倍投入总额情境下,扩大男男性行为者(MSM)人群的干预项目投入占比(均提升至93%),呈现成本效果最优化配置方案。在MSM人群干预各子项目方面,针对MSM人群的安全套干预项目被筛选呈现出更好的投入产出价值。【结论】 加大艾滋病干预投入力度并优化资源配置结构,重点强化针对MSM人群的干预项目,可有效提升艾滋病防控工作的效果。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the cost-effectiveness of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention strategies under varying intervention packages, budgetarylevels, and allocation proportions in an area, thereby providing a reference for optimizing resource allocation in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS ) prevention and control. Methods: Demographic, epidemiological, and clinical progression data of the target population in an area from 2018 to 2024 were collected, along with the input costs and intervention coverage of HIV-related projects. The Optima model was utilized to predict and analyze the allocation of resources under equivalent budgets and to evaluate the epidemiological impacts of different investment levels. Results: ① On the basis of adjusting total investment in HIV interventions, expanding the overall investment would reduce additional new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths. However, marginal saturation effects would be observed when the total investment increased to 1.75 times the baseline level. ② Regarding structural adjustments in investment, under scenarios of current total investment or 1.75 times the total investment, increasing the proportion allocated to MSM (men who have sex with men) intervention programs (both elevated to 93% ) demonstrated the most cost-effective allocation of resources. ③ Among sub-projects targeting the MSM population, condom promotion programs for MSM exhibited superior cost-effectiveness. Conclusion: Increasing investment in HIV/AIDS interventions, optimizing resource allocation structures, and enhancing targeted interventions for the MSM population can effectively improve the epidemiological impacts of HIV/AIDS prevention and control efforts.

     

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