Objective To assess the cost-effectiveness of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention and control strategies across different high-risk populations, investment levels, and allocation proportions in an area, thereby providing a reference for optimizing resource allocation in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) prevention and control.

Methods Demographic, epidemiological, and clinical progression data of the target population in an area from 2018 to 2024 were collected, along with the input costs and intervention coverage of HIV-related projects. The Optima HIV model was utilized to perform fitting and prediction, whereby the allocation of resources to optimized target populations and program interventions was modeled under varying future investment scenarios to predict the impacts on the reduction of new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths.

Results Under the scenario of maintaining the current level of intervention input for HIV key populations, new HIV infections and related deaths in the region were predicted to be controlled at a low level by 2030. In terms of intervention input for HIV key populations, it is suggested that appropriately increasing the intervention input for key HIV populations will further reduce new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths in the region. However, when the total input increases to 1.75 times the baseline level, the marginal effect of input will be saturated. Regarding structural adjustments in investment and considering both the current total investment scenario and 1.75 times the total investment scenario, it is predicted that further reductions in regional HIV new infections and HIV-related deaths can be achieved, provided that the intervention input for key populations (including men who have sex with men, MSM) is increased, while concurrently intensifying the proportion of intervention measures such as condom promotion to form optimized intervention portfolios.

Conclusion In the field of HIV/ AIDS prevention and control, sustained commitment to intervention investment, with a strategic focus on interventions for key populations and intensified implementation of critical intervention measures, will effectively improve the epidemiological impacts of HIV/AIDS prevention and control efforts.