Objective To analyze trends in the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer among the registered residents in Jinhua City of Zhejiang Province from 2016 to 2024, and to predict incidence and mortality rates from 2025 to 2027, thereby providing a reference for refining prevention and control strategies.

Methods Data on pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality among the registered residents in Jinhua City from 2016 to 2024 were collected. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to analyze the temporal trends of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality. Furthermore, a GM (1,1) model was constructed using Excel 2019 to predict incidence rates and mortality rates for the years 2025 to 2027.

Results From 2016 to 2024, the crude incidence and crude mortality rates of pancreatic cancer among the registered residents in Jinhua City were 8.41/100 000 and 8.19/100 000, respectively, both showing upward trends (AAPC=3.55%, 95%CI: 1.69%-5.63%; AAPC=3.35%, 95%CI: 1.08%-5.93%), while the standardized incidence and mortality rates were 5.21/100 000 and 4.93/100 000, respectively, with no statistically significant trends (AAPC=1.12% and 0.52%, both P>0.05). The incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer were higher in men than in women. Both crude incidence and crude mortality rates rose steadily with increased age (both P<0.01). According to the GM (1,1) model, the crude mortality rate of pancreatic cancer among the registered residents in Jinhua City is projected to continue its upward trend from 2025 to 2027 (9.37/100 000, 9.60/100 000, and 9.83/100 000, respectively).

Conclusion From 2016 to 2024, both the crude incidence and crude mortality rates of pancreatic cancer among registered residents in Jinhua City showed continuous upward trends, and the crude mortality rate is likely to continue rising from 2025 to 2027. Efforts to prevent and control pancreatic cancer should be strengthened, particularly among men and the very elderly.