2014—2024年成都市锦江区手足口病流行病学及病原学特征分析

Epidemiological and Etiological Characteristics of Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Jinjiang District of Chengdu City from 2014 to 2024

  • 摘要: 目的对四川省成都市锦江区2014—2024年手足口病流行病学及病原学特征进行分析,为该区手足口病防控提供参考依据。方法采用回顾性研究方法,收集2014年1月1日—2024年12月31日期间锦江区手足口病确诊病例和临床诊断病例,采用描述性流行病学方法分析手足口病的三间分布特征;运用Joinpoint回归模型分析发病率、病重率变化趋势;采用季节指数法分析季节性分布规律;率的比较采用χ2检验;两组偏态分布资料使用Mann-Whitney U检验,多组偏态分布资料使用Kruskal-Wallis H秩和检验。病原学特征以描述性统计为主。结果 2014—2024年共报告手足口病15561例,年发病粗率范围为51.32/10万~502.50/10万,年龄标化发病率范围为55.56/10万~721.07/10万,2018年为发病高峰,流行强度总体呈现隔年增强特点。报告重症病例85例,重症率呈下降趋势(APC=AAPC=-37.57,P<0.01),重症病例以1岁组居多(43.53%),中位年龄1.88岁。报告重复感染1245人次(8.00%),以感染2次为主(592人,96.73%),重复感染初次发病年龄中位数为1.98岁,小于单次感染病例(P<0.001),相邻两次感染间隔中位数为1.19年。发病呈双峰流行,5—7月和10—12月为流行季,但2018年及2023年出现夏季高峰并拖尾至秋季。各年度发病年龄分布差异有统计学意义(H=467.51,P<0.001),年龄中位数从2018年的2.25岁升至2024年的4.18岁,四分位数间距从1.84岁增至3.78岁;两两比较显示,2022—2023年组发病年龄显著高于2014—2021年组(P<0.05)。各年度男性发病率均高于女性(P<0.05)。病原学显示,柯萨奇病毒A组16型(CVA16)常年有检出;肠道病毒71型(EV71)检出波动下降,2022年后无检出;柯萨奇病毒A组6型(CVA6)自2017年首次检出后占比迅速上升,2023年达87.50%,已成为优势毒株;重症病例中EV71占比最高(52.63%),非重症病例中CVA16占比最高(41.60%),重症与非重症病原构成差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论手足口病流行特征随着时间推移持续变迁,需强化日常监测,重点关注病原谱变迁及年龄分布变化,为精准防控和疫苗策略调整提供依据。

     

    Abstract: Objective: To analyze the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand--foot-- and-mouth disease (HFMD) in Jinjiang District of Chengdu City from 2014 to 2024, and provide a reference basis for HFMD prevention and control. Methods A retrospective study was conducted to collect confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases of HFMD in Jinjiang District from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2024. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the distribution of cases by person, time, and place. Joinpoint regression models were applied to examine trends for incidence and severe case rates, while seasonal patterns were analyzed using the seasonal index method. Chi-square tests were used for comparing rates, Mann-Whitney U tests were applied for comparing two groups with skewed distributions, and Kruskal-Wallis H rank-sum tests were used for multiple groups with skewed distributions. Pathogen characteristics were primarily analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results A total of 15,561 HFMD cases were reported from 2014 to 2024. The annual crude incidence rate ranged from 51.32/105 to 502.50/105, the age-standardized incidence rate ranged from 55.56/105 to 721.07/105, peaking in 2018, and the overall epidemic intensity generally showed an alternating-year pattern of intensification. A total of 85 severe cases were reported, showing a declining trend in severity rate (APC = AAPC = -37.57, P < 0.01). Severe cases were most common in the 1‑year‑old age group (43.53%), with a median age of 1.88 years old. Recurrent infections accounted for 1,245 cases (8.00%), with 96.73% of these being two-time infections. The median age at first infection for recurrent cases was 1.98 years old, significantly lower than that of single-infection cases (P < 0.001), and the median interval between consecutive infections was 1.19 years. The disease exhibited a bimodal seasonal pattern, with epidemic peaks occurring from May to July and from October to December, and however, summer peaks extending into autumn were observed in 2018 and 2023. There were statistically significant differences in age distribution across years (H = 467.51, P < 0.001), with the median age increasing from 2.25 years old in 2018 to 4.18 years old in 2024, and the interquartile range widening from 1.84 to 3.78 years. Pairwise comparisons revealed that the age distribution in the 2022-2023 group was significantly higher than in the 2014-2021 group (P < 0.05). Male incidence rates were consistently higher than female rates each year (P < 0.05). Pathogen analyses showed that CVA16 was detected annually, EV71 detection declined fluctuatingly and was not detected after 2022, and CVA6 was first detected in 2017 and was rapidly increased in prevalence and reached 87.50% in 2023, becoming the dominant strain. Among severe cases, EV71 accounted for the highest proportion (52.63%), while CVA16 was most common in non-severe cases (41.60%). There was a statistically significant difference in pathogen composition between severe and non-severe cases (P < 0.05). Conclusion The epidemiological profile of HFMD underwent continuous changes over time. It is necessary to strengthen routine surveillance, with particular attention to changes in the pathogen spectrum and age distribution, so as to provide evidence for precise prevention and control measures and the adjustment of vaccination strategies.

     

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