2018—2023年浙江省宁波市手足口病流行特征分析

Analyses of Epidemiological Characteristics of Hand-foot-mouth Disease in Ningbo City of Zhejiang Province from 2018 to 2023

  • 摘要: 目的 了解2018—2023年宁波市手足口病(HFMD)的流行趋势、重点人群及高发区域特征,为优化预防策略和精准配置防控资源提供参考依据。方法 收集中国疾病预防控制信息系统中2018—2023年现住址为宁波市的HFMD病例资料。采用描述性流行病学方法分析HFMD的流行特征;应用全局空间自相关分析探测HFMD的空间聚集性;运用时空扫描分析,识别时空聚集区域。结果 共纳入2018—2023年宁波市HFMD病例116967例,其中重症病例2例,无死亡病例,年均发病率为206.33/10万,总体呈下降趋势。发病具有季节性,2018、2019、2021和2022年为双峰分布(主高峰5—7月,次高峰9—11月),2020和2023年为单峰分布(高峰分别为10—12月和7—10月)。病例以5岁及以下儿童为主(104634例,89.46%),平均发病年龄为(3.48±3.29)岁;男女性别比为1.44:1;散居儿童(56.39%)和幼托儿童(35.97%)为主要人群。南部宁海县发病率最高(261.46/10万),中部次之,北部慈溪市最低(194.89/10万);城乡接合部属性街道/乡镇发病率最高(240.08/10万)。时空分析显示,2020年存在全局空间聚集性(Moran'sI=0.35,P<0.05),热点集中在宁海县和象山县。时空扫描发现,2018—2023年均存在空间聚集性,聚集最强的为2018年5—9月慈溪市(LLR=27249.53,RR=13.06,P<0.01),其次为2019年4—10月鄞州区(LLR=25172.16,RR=10.61,P<0.01)。结论 宁波市HFMD发病率总体呈下降趋势,发病呈春夏/秋冬双峰或秋冬季单峰分布,以5岁及以下散居及幼托男童为主,高发区域集中于南部区县(宁海、象山)。建议加强5岁以下儿童健康教育和疫苗接种,在高发季节对重点地区实施动态监测与干预,以减少传播和流行。

     

    Abstract: Objective To investigate the epidemic trends, key populations, and high-risk regional characteristics of hand-footmouth disease (HFMD) in Ningbo from 2018 to 2023, and to provide evidence-based references for optimizing prevention strategies and precise allocation of prevention and control resources. Methods Data on HFMD cases with current addresses in Ningbo from 2018 to 2023 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD. Global spatial autocorrelation analyses were applied to detect spatial clustering, and spatiotemporal scan analyses were conducted to identify spatiotemporal clusters. Results A total of 116 967 HFMD cases, including 2 severe cases and no fatal cases, in Ningbo Cityfrom 2018 to 2023were included.. The average annual incidence rate was 206.33 per 100 000 population, showing an overall declining trend. Seasonal patterns were observed, with bimodal distributions in 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022 (main peak: May–July; secondary peak: September–November), and unimodal distributions in 2020 (October–December) and 2023 (July–October). Children aged 5 years old and under accounted for the majority of cases (104 634 cases, 89.46%), with a mean age of onset of 3.48±3.29 years. The maleto-female ratio was 1.44:1. Children cared for at home (56.39%) and those attending kindergarten (35.97%) were the predominant populations. Regionally, the highest incidence was in southern Ninghai County (261.46/100 000), followed by central areas, while northern Cixi City had the lowest incidence(194.89/100 000). The highest incidence rate was observed in areas classified as urbanrural fringes (240.08 per 100,000).Spatial analyses revealed global clustering in 2020 (Moran's I=0.35, P<0.05), with hotspots concentrated in Ninghai and Xiangshan counties. Spatiotemporal scan analyses identified significant clusters each year from 2018 to 2023. The strongest clustering was in Cixi City from May to September in 2018 (LLR=27 249.53, RR=13.06, P<0.01), followed by Yinzhou District from April to October in 2019 (LLR=25 172.16, RR=10.61, P<0.01). Conclusion The overall incidence of HFMD in Ningbo City showed a declining trend, with a bimodal spring-summer and autumn-winter ora unimodal autumn-winter seasonal patterns. The disease predominantly affected male children aged 5 years old and under who were cared for at home or attended kindergarten, with high-risk areas concentrated in southern counties (Ninghai and Xiangshan). It is recommended to strengthen health education and vaccination coverage for children aged 5 years old and under, while implementing dynamic surveillance and targeted interventions in key areas during high-incidence seasons to reduce transmission and prevalence.

     

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