2005-2024年浙江省海宁市肺结核发病趋势

Analysis of Pulmonary Tuberculosis Incidence Trends in Haining City, Zhejiang Province, 2005—2024

  • 摘要: 目的 分析2005-2024年浙江省海宁市肺结核的发病趋势,并探讨年龄、时期、出生队列对发病风险的影响,为优化防控策略提供依据。方法 收集海宁市2005-2024年肺结核报告发病数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型计算年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)以分析发病趋势,并建立年龄-时期-队列模型评估年龄、时期和队列效应。结果 2005-2024年海宁市共报告肺结核病例7 774例,年均报告粗发病率为45.71/10万,男性粗发病率(61.65/10万)高于女性(29.28/10万),不同性别年均报告粗发病率差异有统计学意义(χ2= 974.45,P<0.001)。全人群标化发病率总体呈下降趋势(AAPC=-7.70%,P<0.001),其中2005-2013年呈快速下降趋势(APC=-11.51%,P<0.001),2013-2019年进入平台期(APC=-0.05%,P>0.05)。年龄-时期-队列模型显示,纵向年龄曲线呈现20~24岁组人群粗发病率最高,为344.16/10万(95% CI: 255.81/10万~463.04/10万),而横向年龄曲线呈现25~29岁青年组和75~79岁老年组的双高峰特征。以2010-2014年为参照,随着时期推移人群肺结核发病风险下降,从2005-2009年的1.79(95% CI: 1.56~ 2.04)下降至2020-2024年的0.54(95% CI: 0.45~ 0.66);以1970年出生队列为参照,随出生时间推移,发病风险下降。结论 2005-2024年海宁市肺结核标化发病率呈下降趋势,发病风险受年龄、时期和队列因素共同影响。未来防控工作应重点关注老年和男性人群,并加强潜伏性感染者的干预。

     

    Abstract: Objective: To analyze the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in Haining City, Zhejiang Province from 2005 to 2024, and to explore the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the risk of PTB, so as to provide evidence for optimizing prevention and control strategies. Methods: Data on reported PTB cases in Haining City from 2005 to 2024 were collected. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) to analyze incidence trends. An age-period-cohort model was established to evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort. Results: A total of 7 774 PTB cases were reported in Haining City from 2005 to 2024, with an average annual reported crude incidence rate of 45.71 per 100 000. The crude incidence rate in males (61.65 per 100 000) was significantly higher than that in females (29.28 per 100 000, χ2=974.45, P<0.001). The total population agestandardized incidence rate showed a declining trend (AAPC=-7.70%, P<0.001), with a rapid decline from 2005 to 2013 (APC=-11.51%, P<0.001), followed by a plateau phase from 2013 to 2019 (APC=-0.05%, P>0.05). The age-period-cohort model showed that, the longitudinal age curve indicated the highest crude incidence rate in the 20–24 years age group, while the cross-sectional age curve exhibited a bimodal pattern, with peaks observed in the young adult group (25–29 years) and the elderly group (75–79 years). using the 2010–2014 period as a reference, the risk of PTB decreased over time, declining from 1.79(95% CI: 1.56–2.04) in 2005–2009 to 0.54 (95% CI: 0.45-0.66) in 2020–2024. Using the 1970 birth cohort as a reference, the risk of PTB decreased with later birth cohorts. Conclusion: The age-standardized incidence of PTB in Haining City showed a significant downward trend from 2005 to 2024, The risk of PTB is jointly influenced by age, period, and cohort factors. Future prevention and control efforts should focus on the elderly and male populations, and strengthen interventions for individuals with latent tuberculosis infection.

     

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