健康预期寿命纳入国民健康考核体系的技术路径思考

Reflections on the technical pathways for integrating healthy life expectancy into the national health assessment system

  • 摘要: 将健康预期寿命(HLE)纳入国民健康考核体系,是推动健康中国战略从“以治病为中心”向“以健康为中心”转型的关键制度安排。2000—2021年间,我国人均预期寿命(LE)年均增长0.39%,HLE年均增长0.36%,LE与HLE绝对差值由7.7岁扩大至约10.4岁,HLE与LE的占比由89.2%微降至87.7%,呈现功能残障期延长的特征。上述数据揭示现行以LE为导向的考核体系固化了“重治疗、轻预防”的激励结构,是HLE增速滞后于LE增速的关键制度根源之一。但HLE纳入考核体系面临四大系统障碍:指标定义与测算标准不统一、干预效果归因困难、跨部门权责碎片化、健康公平实现路径不明。鉴于此,构建“分层分类、多维综合”的HLE考核指标框架,明确“国家⁃省⁃市县”三级考核层级与多部门责任分工,提出人工智能(AI)辅助动态监测、数字孪生干预、城市智能体协同与AI平权行动等数智化支撑路径。为推动HLE从“监测概念”走向“治理工具”提供参考路径。

     

    Abstract: Integrating healthy life expectancy (HLE) into the national health assessment system is a key institutional arrangement for advancing the Healthy China Strategy from a disease-centered to a health-centered paradigm. From 2000 to 2021, China's life expectancy (LE) increased by an average of 0.39% annually, while HLE increased by 0.36%. The absolute gap between LE and HLE widened from 7.7 to approximately 10.4 years, and the HLE/LE ratio declined slightly from 89.2% to 87.7%, reflecting an expansion of morbidity. These data reveal that the current LE-oriented assessment system has institutionalized an incentive structure that overemphasizes diagnosis and treatment while neglecting prevention and rehabilitation, representing one of the key institutional roots of the slower growth in HLE compared to LE. However, integrating HLE into the assessment system faces four systemic barriers, including inconsistent indicator definitions and measurement standards, difficulties in attributing intervention effects, fragmented cross-sectoral governance, and unclear pathways to achieving health equity. Accordingly, a “stratified, classified, and multi-dimensional” HLE assessment framework has been constructed, clarifying the three-level assessment hierarchies (national-provincial-municipal/county) and multi-departmental responsibility allocation, and proposing some digital-intelligent support pathways including artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted dynamic monitoring, digital twin interventions, healthy city intelligent ecosystems, and AI equity initiatives, so as to provide a referential pathway for advancing HLE from a monitoring concept to a governance tool.

     

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