2020—2024年常州市成年居民慢性阻塞性肺疾病首次诊断报告率及变化趋势

Trend analyses of first-diagnosis reporting rate of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease among adult residents in Changzhou City from 2020 to 2024

  • 摘要: 目的 了解常州市成年居民2020—2024年慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)的首次诊断报告率(以下简称“首诊率”)及年度变化趋势,为本地区开展COPD的预防控制和医疗资源优化配置提供科学依据。方法 利用常州市卫生健康数据管理平台收集的2020—2024年COPD首次诊断报告病例资料及当地各年龄组、各性别常住人口数据,按诊断年份、性别、年龄组进行分层分析,计算粗首诊率、年龄别首诊率。采用中国第七次全国人口普查(2020年)数据作为标准人口计算年龄标化首诊率。采用对数线性模型估算标化首诊率的平均年度百分比变化(AAPC)及95%CI和P值。结果 2020—2024年期间,常州市共报告成年居民COPD首次诊断病例12 925例。总体粗首诊率从2020年的37.91/10上升至2024年的100.68/10,总体年龄粗首诊率从2020年的116.83/10上升至2024年的274.59/10,AAPC为26.55%(95% CI: 5.98%~51.11%P = 0.024)。男性新发病例9 831例,粗首诊率从57.07/10万上升至159.29/10万,标化首诊率从92.54/10万上升至223.82/10万,AAPC为27.58%(95% CI: 6.21%~53.26%P = 0.024);女性新发病例3 094例,粗首诊率从19.53/10万上升至45.39/10万,标化首诊率从26.01/10万上升至55.33/10万,AAPC为22.90%(95% CI: 5.19%~43.59%P = 0.024)。全人群及按性别分的COPD粗首诊率和标化首诊率均上升趋势均有统计学意义(均P < 0.05)。年龄别首诊率随年龄增长而升高,高峰主要集中在70~74岁年龄组人群。结论 2020—2024年常州市COPD的首次诊断报告年龄标化率呈现统计学上显著的快速增长态势,男性报告率高于女性,高龄人群是主要报告群体。应高度关注这一趋势,加强对高危人群的筛查、早期干预及规范化管理。

     

    Abstract: Objective To understand the first-diagnosis reporting rate of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) among adult residents in Changzhou City from 2020 to 2024 and its annual trends, aiming to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of COPD and the optimization of healthcare resource allocation in this region. Methods Data on first-diagnosis reported cases of COPD from 2020 to 2024 were collected from the Changzhou Health Data Management Platform, along with resident population data stratified by age group and sex for the corresponding years. Stratified analyses were conducted by diagnosis year, sex, and age group to calculate crude first-diagnosis reporting rate and age-specific first-diagnosis reporting rate. The age-standardized first-diagnosis reporting rate (ASFDRR) was calculated using data from the Seventh National Population Census of China (2020) as the standard population. A log-linear model was employed to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in ASFDRR, along with its 95%CI and P-value. Results From 2020 to 2024, a total of 12 925 first-diagnosis COPD cases of adult residents were reported in Changzhou City. The overall crude first-diagnosis reporting rate increased from 37.91/100 000 in 2020 to 100.68 1/100 000 in 2024. The overall ASFDRR rose from 116.83/100 000 in 2020 to 274.59/100 000 in 2024, with an AAPC of 26.55% (95% CI: 5.98%-51.11%, P=0.024). Among these, 9 831 new cases were male, with the crude first-diagnosis reporting rate increasing from 57.07/100 000 to 159.29/100 000, and the ASFDRR increasing from 92.54/100 000 to 223.82 / 100 000, with an AAPC of 27.58% (95% CI: 6.21%-53.26%, P=0.024). There were 3 094 new female cases, with the crude first-diagnosis reporting rate rising from 19.53/100 000 to 45.39/100 000, and the ASFDRR increasing from 26.01/100 000 to 55.33/100 000, with an AAPC of 22.90% (95% CI: 5.19%-43.59%, P=0.024). Both crude and age-standardized first-diagnosis reporting rate of COPD for the total population and stratified by sex showed a statistically significant upward trend (all P < 0.05). Age-specific incidence rate increased significantly with age, with the reporting peak primarily concentrated in the 70 to 74 years old age group. Conclusion The age-standardized first-diagnosis reporting rate of COPD in Changzhou City exhibited a statistically significant and rapid increase from 2020 to 2024. Male reporting rates were higher than female rates, and the elderly population constituted the main reporting group. This trend warrants close attention, emphasizing the need to strengthen screening, early intervention, and standardized management for high-risk populations.

     

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