Abstract:
Objective To analyze the trends in the disease burden of respiratory syncytial virus-associated lower respiratory tract infections (RSV-LRTIs) among children aged 0~14 years in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the disease burden from 2021 to 2030.
Methods Data on mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and correspongding rates of RSV-LRTIs among children aged 0~14 years in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. The Bayesian regression tools (DisMod-MR 2.1) was used for data modeling and estimation. Joinpoint regression was employed to analyze temporal trends, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) was applied to predict the disease burden from 2021 to 2030.
Results From 1990 to 2021, the number of deaths due to RSV-LRTIs among children aged 0~14 years in China decreased from 24 738 per year to 400 per year, and the mortality rate declined from 7.8 per 100 000 to 0.2 per 100,000. The number of DALYs decreased from 2 211 155 to 35 958, and the DALYs rate dropped from 694.5 per 100,000 to 13.8 per 100 000.. A disparity in disease burden is observed, with a higher burden among male children compared to females. The highest risk is seen in children under 5 years of age, with a particularly elevated burden among infants under 6 months and newborns. Joinpoint regression showed significant declines in both mortality and DALYs rates across all periods (
P<0.001), with the steepest decline from 2019 to 2021. Predictions for 2030 indicated that the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease to 0.0009 per 100 000 and the DALYs rate to 0.019 per 100 000.
Conclusion The disease burden of RSV-LRTIs among children aged 0~14 years in China has decreased significantly and is projected to continue declining. Sustained monitoring and prevention efforts are essential, particularly for high-risk infant populations.