1990—2030年中国0~14岁儿童呼吸道合胞病毒相关下呼吸道感染的疾病负担

The Disease Burden of Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Associated Lower Respiratory Infections among Children Aged 0~14 Years in China, 1990-2030

  • 摘要:目的】 分析1990—2021年中国0~14岁儿童呼吸道合胞病毒相关下呼吸道感染(RSV-LRTIs)的疾病负担变化趋势,并预测2021—2030年的疾病负担情况。【方法】 基于全球疾病负担研究(GBD)2021年数据库,提取中国0~14岁儿童RSV-LRTIs的死亡率、伤残调整寿命年(DALYs)及其比率等数据。采用贝叶斯回归工具DisMod-MR 2.1进行数据建模与估计,Joinpoint回归分析时间趋势,BAPC模型预测2021—2030年的疾病负担。【结果】 1990—2021年,中国0~14岁儿童RSV-LRTIs死亡人数从24 738例下降至400例,死亡率从7.8/10万降至0.2/10万;DALYs从2 211 155人年下降至35 958人年,DALYs率从694.5/10万降至13.8/10万。男童的疾病负担高于女性。5岁以下儿童,尤其是6个月以下婴儿和新生儿是高风险人群。Joinpoint回归显示各阶段死亡率和DALYs率均下降(P<0.001),2019—2021年降幅最大。预测至2030年,0~14岁儿童年龄标准化死亡率将降至0.0009/10 万(95%CI:0.0002~0.0017),年龄标准化DALYs率降至0.019/10 万(95%CI:-0.006~0.044)。【结论】 中国0~14岁儿童RSV-LRTIs疾病负担显著下降,未来仍呈下降趋势,需持续加强婴幼儿人群的监测与防控。

     

    Abstract: Objective To analyze the trends in the disease burden of respiratory syncytial virus-associated lower respiratory tract infections (RSV-LRTIs) among children aged 0~14 years in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the disease burden from 2021 to 2030. Methods Data on mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and correspongding rates of RSV-LRTIs among children aged 0~14 years in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. The Bayesian regression tools (DisMod-MR 2.1) was used for data modeling and estimation. Joinpoint regression was employed to analyze temporal trends, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) was applied to predict the disease burden from 2021 to 2030. Results From 1990 to 2021, the number of deaths due to RSV-LRTIs among children aged 0~14 years in China decreased from 24 738 per year to 400 per year, and the mortality rate declined from 7.8 per 100 000 to 0.2 per 100,000. The number of DALYs decreased from 2 211 155 to 35 958, and the DALYs rate dropped from 694.5 per 100,000 to 13.8 per 100 000.. A disparity in disease burden is observed, with a higher burden among male children compared to females. The highest risk is seen in children under 5 years of age, with a particularly elevated burden among infants under 6 months and newborns. Joinpoint regression showed significant declines in both mortality and DALYs rates across all periods (P<0.001), with the steepest decline from 2019 to 2021. Predictions for 2030 indicated that the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease to 0.0009 per 100 000 and the DALYs rate to 0.019 per 100 000. Conclusion The disease burden of RSV-LRTIs among children aged 0~14 years in China has decreased significantly and is projected to continue declining. Sustained monitoring and prevention efforts are essential, particularly for high-risk infant populations.

     

/

返回文章
返回