臭氧污染对上海市60岁及以上老年人群意外伤害发生的影响

Impact of ambient ozone exposure on the incidence of unintentional injuries among the elderly aged 60 and above in Shanghai

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨上海大气臭氧(O3)污染对60岁及以上老年人群意外伤害发生的急性效应,为评估O3造成的疾病负担并制定有效的防治策略提供科学依据。方法 收集2022—2024年上海市急性创伤急救中心接诊的60岁及以上意外伤害患者信息及同期上海市环境监测中心公布的上海大气污染物及气象资料。采用广义相加模型(GAM),分析O3与意外伤害事件发生风险之间的关联。以O3日最大8 h平均(O3-8 h)浓度每升高10 μg·m-3,计算意外伤害风险增加的超额危险度(ER)及其95%CI,评估O3对意外伤害发生的健康效应。同时引入其它大气污染物构建双污染物模型以评估结果的稳健性。结果 研究期间,O3-8 h浓度中位数M(P25P75)为93.00(71.00,122.75)μg·m-3,整体呈现夏季高、冬季低的季节性特征。共纳入60岁及以上老年人群意外伤害患者19 009例,平均日接诊量M(P25P75)为15(9,21)例。O3当日(lag0)暴露对意外伤害发生风险的效应最显著,O3-8 h浓度每升高10 μg·m-3,意外事故、跌倒/坠落、交通事故所致伤害的风险分别增加6.69%(95%CI:6.11%~7.28%)、6.62%(95%CI:5.98%~7.26%)和6.69%(95%CI:4.87%~8.53%),且对女性、75岁以下老年人群意外伤害发生风险的影响更为明显。双污染物模型中,引入其它污染物后,O3仍可显著增加意外事故、跌倒/坠落、交通事故所致的伤害风险。结论 大气O3污染对60岁及以上老年人群意外伤害发生存在急性效应,可增加伤害发生风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To explore the acute effects of ambient ozone (O3) pollution on the occurrence of unintentional injuries among the elderly aged 60 and above in Shanghai, so as to provide a scientific basis for assessing the disease burden attributable to O3 and for formulating effective prevention strategies. Methods Data on unintentional injury patients aged 60 and above treated at Shanghai Acute Trauma Emergency Centers between 2022 and 2024 were collected, along with the daily data of concurrent ambient air pollutants and meteorological variables from the Shanghai Environmental Monitoring Centre. A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the association between O3 exposure and the risk of unintentional injuries. The exposure metric was the daily maximum 8-h moving-average O3 concentration (O3-8 h). The excess risk (ER) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) for unintentional injuries were calculated per 10 μg·m-3 increase in O3-8 h, thereby evaluating the acute health effects of O3. Two-pollutant models were used after controlling for other ambient pollutants to evaluate the robustness of the result. Results During the research period, the median M (P25, P75) O3-8 h concentration was 93.00 (71.00, 122.75) μg·m-3, exhibiting a seasonal pattern with higher levels in summer and lower levels in winter. A total of 19 009 unintentional injury casesaged 60 and above were included , with a median M (P25, P75) daily admission count of 15 (9, 21). Immediate exposure (lag0) showed the strongest association with injuries: per 10 μg·m-3 increase in O3-8 h, the risk of unintentional injuries caused by accidents, falls, and traffic accidents increased by 6.69% (95%CI: 6.11%-7.28%), 6.62% (95%CI: 5.98%-7.26%), and 6.69% (95%CI: 4.87%-8.53%), respectively. The effects were more pronounced in women and adults aged <75 years. In two-pollutant models, O3 remained significantly associated with increased injury risks after adjusting for other pollutants. Conclusion Ambient O3 pollution has acute effects on unintentional injuries among the elderly aged 60 and above in Shanghai, elevating the risk of injury occurrence.

     

/

返回文章
返回