ObjectiveTo analyze the long-term variation trend for the morbidity and mortality of female breast cancer in Chongming County.

MethodsBased on the cancer registration data for the permanent residents in Chongming County from 1998 to 2013, the annual percent change (APC) model was adopted to analyze the time trends of the morbidity and mortality of female breast cancer.

ResultsBreast cancer was the most common female cancer in Chongming County. From 1998 to 2013, the crude morbidity of female breast cancer there was 36.11/10⁵, the standardized morbidity thereof was 20.69/10⁵; the crude mortality thereof was 11.66/10⁵, the standardized mortality thereof was 5.77/10⁵. Although the morbidity of female breast cancer continued to rise in recent 10 years, the mortality rate thereof no longer increased, and showed a significantly downward trend instead. Among all the patients thereof in Chongming County, the age group with the highest morbidity rate was 55-59 age group; the age group with the highest mortality rate was in the age group above 85. The standardized morbidity rate thereof for the age group below 55 showed a significantly upward trend while standardized mortality rate thereof for the same age group had no significant difference. Starting from 2002, the standardized morbidity rate thereof for the age group above 55 turned from a significantly upward trend into a stable trend; the standardized mortality rate thereof for the same age group no longer rose after 2003.

ConclusionAlthough both the morbidity and mortality of female breast cancer are low in Chongming, the morbidity thereof takes on a significantly upward trend. With the improvement of the diagnosis technologies thereof, the standardized mortality thereof showed a downward trend. Owing to the aggravation for the aging of the population, the crude incidence thereof will increase in future, and the female breast cancer will continue to threaten the health and life of women in Chongming County.