向芳, 邵月琴, 张一英, 袁红, 张勇. 应用德尔菲法构建慢性病防控政策评价指标体系[J]. 上海预防医学, 2018, 30(3): 236-240. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2018.18241
引用本文: 向芳, 邵月琴, 张一英, 袁红, 张勇. 应用德尔菲法构建慢性病防控政策评价指标体系[J]. 上海预防医学, 2018, 30(3): 236-240. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2018.18241
Fang XIANG, Yue-qin SHAO, Yi-ying ZHANG, Hong YUAN, Yong ZHANG. Evaluation index system constructed for chronic disease prevention and control policy based on Delphi method[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2018, 30(3): 236-240. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2018.18241
Citation: Fang XIANG, Yue-qin SHAO, Yi-ying ZHANG, Hong YUAN, Yong ZHANG. Evaluation index system constructed for chronic disease prevention and control policy based on Delphi method[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2018, 30(3): 236-240. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2018.18241

应用德尔菲法构建慢性病防控政策评价指标体系

Evaluation index system constructed for chronic disease prevention and control policy based on Delphi method

  • 摘要:
    目的建立一套科学、简便、全面的慢性病防控政策评价指标体系,为慢性病防治工作提供服务。
    方法于2015年8—9月采取广泛查阅文献和专家专题讨论的方式,制定指标体系框架, 采用德尔菲专家咨询法构建指标体系。
    结果选择从事卫生及相关专业工作的25名专家参与德尔菲专家咨询,两轮专家咨询的专家积极系数均为86.2%,专家权威系数为0.85,变异系数均<0.33。通过两轮德尔菲法专家调查,最终构建了包括3个一级指标,21个二级指标和56个三级指标的慢性病政策评价指标体系。56项三级指标的必要性指标和操作性指标的评价意见协调系数w分别为0.307和0.288。协调系数经χ2检验差异有统计学意义,说明专家评价意见具有一致性。
    结论建立的慢性病防控政策评价指标体系较为全面。专家积极性高,权威性、协调性较好,筛选出的指标可用于慢性病防控工作评价。

     

    Abstract:
    ObjectiveTo establish a scientific, simple and comprehensive evaluation index system for chronic disease prevention and control policy, and to offer service for chronic disease prevention and control.
    MethodsIn August-September 2015, the index system framework was formulated through extensive consultion of the literature and expert discussion, and the index system was constructed by adoption of Delphi expert consultation method.
    ResultsTwenty five experts majoring in health and related disciplines were invited to participate in Delphy expert consultation.The active coefficients from two rounds of expert consultation were 86.2% and 86.2% respectively; the expert authority coefficient was 0.85;and the coefficient of variation was less than 0.33.Through the two rounds of Delphi expert investigation was finally established the evaluation index system of chronic disease, including 3 primary indicators, 21 secondary indicators and 56 tertiary indicators.With 56 tertiary indicators, evaluation coordination coefficients for necessity and operation indicators were 0.307 and 0.288 respectively, which were done with chi-square test and proved significant, indicating that expert evaluations were of consistency.
    ConclusionThe comprehensive policy evaluation index system for chronic disease prevention and control is established and proves to be fairly comprihensive.The experts have high enthusiasm, good authority and coordination.Their selected indicators can be used for evaluation of chronic disease prevention and control.

     

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