于宏杰, 段春梅, 周艺彪, 王英鉴, 费洁, 钟培松. 上海市嘉定区2015—2018年水痘疫情时空分布特征分析[J]. 上海预防医学, 2020, 32(6): 516-520. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2020.19719
引用本文: 于宏杰, 段春梅, 周艺彪, 王英鉴, 费洁, 钟培松. 上海市嘉定区2015—2018年水痘疫情时空分布特征分析[J]. 上海预防医学, 2020, 32(6): 516-520. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2020.19719
YU Hong-jie, DUAN Chun-mei, ZHOU Yi-biao, WANG Ying-jian, FEI Jie, ZHONG Pei-song. Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of varicella epidemic in Jiading District in Shanghai from 2015 to 2018[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2020, 32(6): 516-520. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2020.19719
Citation: YU Hong-jie, DUAN Chun-mei, ZHOU Yi-biao, WANG Ying-jian, FEI Jie, ZHONG Pei-song. Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of varicella epidemic in Jiading District in Shanghai from 2015 to 2018[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2020, 32(6): 516-520. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2020.19719

上海市嘉定区2015—2018年水痘疫情时空分布特征分析

Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of varicella epidemic in Jiading District in Shanghai from 2015 to 2018

  • 摘要:
    目的了解上海市嘉定区2015—2018年水痘疫情的时空流行规律。
    方法收集上海市嘉定区2015—2018年间水痘疫情报告数据,采用时空扫描统计方法探测水痘的时空分布规律。
    结果2015—2018年间共报告水痘病例5 889例,年平均发病率为91.68/10万;3岁以下儿童发病率最高,达621.45/10万,高于18岁以上人群(40.13/10万)(χ2=16 616.788,P < 0.001);发病的低谷出现在9月份和2月份,病例数分别占发病总数的5.41%和5.31%,发病高峰为12月份和11月份,分别占13.41%和11.95%;中心城区发病率最高,达151.80/10万,东北部农村地区发病率最低,为59.89/10万。时空扫描发现低人口密度区的聚集范围广,效应值低,高人口密度区的聚集范围小,效应值高。
    结论水痘发病呈现较明显的人群和时空聚集性,应根据辖区水痘的流行特点,对重点人群开展有针对性的防控。

     

    Abstract:
    ObjectiveTo investigate the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of varicella outbreak in Jiading District in Shanghai from 2015 to 2018.
    MethodsVaricella epidemic report data was collected from the national system of disease control and prevention and analyzed by spatial-temporal scanning statistic methods.
    ResultsThere were 5 889 varicella cases reported from the year 2015 to 2018, and the annual average incidence rate was 91.68 per 100 000.The incidence rate for children below 3 years old was found to be the highest, reaching 621.45 per 100 000, which was significantly higher than that for the group of 18 years old and above (χ2=16 616.788, P < 0.001).There were 5.41% and 5.31% of the cases in September and February, respectively, which were lower than other months, and the peak incidence occurred in December and November, accounting for 13.41% and 11.95%, respectively.The highest and lowest incidence rates were 151.80 per 100 000 occurring in central urban area and 59.89 per 100 000 in rural area, respectively.The spatial-temporal scanning showed that the low population density area had a wide cluster range and a low effect value.The high population density area has small cluster range and high effect value.
    ConclusionThe incidence of vanicella presents a trend of population, seasonal and regional clustering.Therefore, targeted measure should be taken to prevent varicella in focus population.

     

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