谭晓㛃, 钱治军, 张宏伟. 全国新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情初期治愈和死亡情况分析[J]. 上海预防医学, 2020, 32(4): 309-313. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2020.20081
引用本文: 谭晓㛃, 钱治军, 张宏伟. 全国新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情初期治愈和死亡情况分析[J]. 上海预防医学, 2020, 32(4): 309-313. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2020.20081
TAN Xiao-jie, QIAN Zhi-jun, ZHANG Hong-wei. Cure and death situation in early outbreak of COVID-19 in China[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2020, 32(4): 309-313. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2020.20081
Citation: TAN Xiao-jie, QIAN Zhi-jun, ZHANG Hong-wei. Cure and death situation in early outbreak of COVID-19 in China[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2020, 32(4): 309-313. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2020.20081

全国新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情初期治愈和死亡情况分析

Cure and death situation in early outbreak of COVID-19 in China

  • 摘要:
    目的了解全国新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情初期的治愈和死亡趋势,增强对该疾病流行特征的科学认识,为评估防控措施效果及投入产出提供依据。
    方法收集2020年1月20日至2月20日湖北省、全国及湖北省外其他地区的新型冠状病毒肺炎的每日累计治愈人数、累计死亡人数、每日新增确诊人数,计算病死率、累计治愈人数与累计死亡人数之比等指标,进行流行病学描述性分析。
    结果截至2020年2月20日,湖北省新型冠状病毒肺炎的总病死率为3.42%,略高于全国数据2.96%。湖北省外全国其他地区的总病死率为0.71%。对每日治愈人数、每日死亡人数以及累计治愈与累计死亡病例数之比等指标的趋势分析发现,全国与湖北省的趋势高度一致,而湖北省与全国其他地区的趋势具有显著差异。湖北省(全国)的累计治愈与累计死亡病例数之比逐日变化趋势呈U型曲线,1月27日该比例达到最低点,2月5日之后上升速度较快。
    结论累计治愈与累计死亡之比较每日治愈、每日死亡等其他绝对数指标,可更有效地反映疫情控制情况。自2月5日后全国新型冠状病毒肺炎病例的治愈情况明显优于死亡情况,反映了前期一系列的联防联控措施的有效性,但在未来恢复正常生产和生活的环境中达到可持续性的防控,仍面临诸多挑战。

     

    Abstract:
    ObjectiveTo investigate the cure and mortality trend in the early outbreak of COVID-19 in China, to increase its entire epidemiological understanding, providing evidence for assessing the prevention and control measures against it and input-output in this regard.
    MethodsData were collected concerning daily new confirmed cases, the cumulative cure and death cases in China and Hubei Province and outside Hubei Province, which were reported officially from January 20th, 2020 to February 20th, 2020.Calculation was done of the fatality rate, the ratio of the numbers of cumulative cure cases to cumulative death cases, etc, and then the epidemiological description was made.
    ResultsAs of Feb 20, 2020, the fatality rate of COVID-19 in Hubei Province was 3.42%, which was a little higher than the national figure of 2.96%.The fatality rate of COVID-19 outside Hubei Province in China was 0.71%.The trends on the indexes, including the daily new cure cases, daily new death and the ratio of cumulative cure cases to cumulative death, in Hubei Province and the whole country were found to be highly consistent, while the significant difference existed between Hubei Province and outside Hubei Province in China.The daily ratio of cumulative cure cases to cumulative death in Hubei Province (the whole country) exhibited the U-curve trend, which reached the lowest point on Jan 27 and subsequently rose more rapidly after Feb 5.
    ConclusionThe ratio of cumulative cure cases to cumulative death is easier and effective to reflect the outbreak situation than other absolute indexes like the daily new cure cases or death.Since Feb 5, 2020, the daily cure status of COVID-19 is significantly better than the daily death, which indicates the effectiveness of series of the joint defense and control measures.However, plenty of challenges exist in recovering normal production and life when the epidemic comes to be sustainably prevented and controlled.

     

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