罗力, 白鸽, 戴瑞明, 王倩, 朱欢欢, 刘鑫, 吴萍, 王颖, 张天天. 上海H7N9禽流感与武汉新冠肺炎疫情早期控制流程的比较[J]. 上海预防医学, 2020, 32(6): 478-480, 496. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2020.20122
引用本文: 罗力, 白鸽, 戴瑞明, 王倩, 朱欢欢, 刘鑫, 吴萍, 王颖, 张天天. 上海H7N9禽流感与武汉新冠肺炎疫情早期控制流程的比较[J]. 上海预防医学, 2020, 32(6): 478-480, 496. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2020.20122
shu
LUO Li, BAI Ge, DAI Rui-ming, WANG Qian, ZHU Huan-huan, LIU Xin, WU Ping, WANG Ying, ZHANG Tian-tian. Comparison of the early control process of H7N9 avian influenza in Shanghai and COVID-19 in Wuhan[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2020, 32(6): 478-480, 496. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2020.20122
Citation: LUO Li, BAI Ge, DAI Rui-ming, WANG Qian, ZHU Huan-huan, LIU Xin, WU Ping, WANG Ying, ZHANG Tian-tian. Comparison of the early control process of H7N9 avian influenza in Shanghai and COVID-19 in Wuhan[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2020, 32(6): 478-480, 496. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2020.20122
shu

上海H7N9禽流感与武汉新冠肺炎疫情早期控制流程的比较

Comparison of the early control process of H7N9 avian influenza in Shanghai and COVID-19 in Wuhan

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 分析判断如果新型冠状病毒肺炎肇始于上海，上海市实现早期控制的可能性。
    方法 比较2013年上海H7N9禽流感和2019年武汉新型冠状病毒肺炎的早期控制流程，运用韩国新型冠状病毒肺炎早期发病数据模拟分析上海早期控制新型冠状病毒肺炎的情境，测算上海是否具备所需要的医疗资源。
    结果 从出现第1例病例到政府启动应急响应，上海需时22 d。疫情发展到22 d，估计累计发病和潜伏期结束后即发病的病例在602~763例。上海应急可调配至少500张以上传染病床位，经加床和全市调配资源，可以做到病例全收全治。
    结论 如果新型冠状病毒肺炎发生在上海，虽有困难，但早期控制完全可能。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze and estimate the possibility of early control in Shanghai if COVID-19 had begun in Shanghai.
    Methods Comparison was made in the processes of early control between H7N9 avian influenza in Shanghai in 2013 and COVID-19 in Wuhan in 2019.The early incidence data of Korean COVID-19 was simulated and analyzed to predict whether the medical resources needed in Shanghai were available.
    Results If it had occurred in Shanghai, it would have taken 22 days from the first case to the government′s emergency response.It was estimated that there would have been 602-763 patients with cumulative onset and onset after incubation period.At least 500 beds of infectious diseases could have been allocated in Shanghai in case of emergency.Through adding beds and resources reallocation in the whole city, patients could have been fully admitted and treated.
    Conclusion If COVID-19 epidemic had occurred in Shanghai, it′s early control would have been possible though there might have difficulties.

     

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