黄丽, 李辉, 管晓晔, 赵佳, 韩雪. 全面二孩政策对上海市杨浦区户籍居民生育水平的影响分析[J]. 上海预防医学, 2021, 33(1): 42-46. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2021.19343
引用本文: 黄丽, 李辉, 管晓晔, 赵佳, 韩雪. 全面二孩政策对上海市杨浦区户籍居民生育水平的影响分析[J]. 上海预防医学, 2021, 33(1): 42-46. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2021.19343
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HUANG Li, LI Hui, GUAN Xiao-ye, ZHAO Jia, HAN Xue. Analysis of the two-child policy's impact on the fertility level of the residents in Yangpu District, Shanghai[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2021, 33(1): 42-46. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2021.19343
Citation: HUANG Li, LI Hui, GUAN Xiao-ye, ZHAO Jia, HAN Xue. Analysis of the two-child policy's impact on the fertility level of the residents in Yangpu District, Shanghai[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2021, 33(1): 42-46. DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2021.19343
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全面二孩政策对上海市杨浦区户籍居民生育水平的影响分析

Analysis of the two-child policy's impact on the fertility level of the residents in Yangpu District, Shanghai

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的探索全面二孩政策出台后对居民生育水平的影响。
    方法收集2015年1月至2018年12月上海市杨浦区的户籍人口出生登记数据，分析政策实施后户籍人口的生育特征及其变化情况。
    结果在生育水平方面，仅2016年总和生育率高于1，为1.04，其余3年均为0.8左右；在孩次方面，二孩出生数在政策的刺激下有所上升，但二孩增加数远低于一孩减少数。2015—2018年该地区户籍二孩出生数占总出生数的比例分别为18.84%、20.03%、26.29%和24.35%。2015年1月至2016年8月，二孩出生比例呈缓慢上升趋势，月度变化百分比（APC）为0.34%（P > 0.05）；2016年9月至2017年5月，二孩出生比例呈明显上升趋势，APC为3.97%（P < 0.05）；2017年6月至2018年12月，二孩出生比例呈下降趋势，APC为-0.97%（P < 0.05）。
    结论在生育政策利好的情况下，杨浦区的生育水平依然处在极低水平。

     

    Abstract:
    ObjectiveTo explore the impact of the two-child policy on the fertility level of residents in Yangpu District.
    MethodsBirth registry data were collected from the residents of Yangpu District in Shanghai during January 2015 to December 2018 for the analysis of birth characteristics and its variation after the two-child policy implementation.
    ResultsThe total fertility rate was higher than 1 only in 2016 that was 1.04, whereas it was about 0.8 in other three years. The number of the second child increased which was inspired by the policy. However, the increment in the number of second child was far less than the decrease in the first child. From 2015 through 2018, the proportion of second children in the total births with local household registration accounted for 18.84%, 20.03%, 26.29% and 24.35%, respectively. From January 2015 to August 2016, the proportion of second children was on the rise slowly, in which the annual percent change(APC)value was 0.34%(P > 0.05). From September 2016 to May 2017, the proportion of second children had shown an obvious increase, and the APC value was 3.97%(P < 0.05). From June 2017 to December 2018, the proportion of second children was on a downward trend, in which the APC value was -0.97%(P < 0.05).
    ConclusionFavorable fertility policy may not reverse the fertility level in Yangpu District, which remains at a very low level.

     

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