Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Minhang District， Shanghai from 2013 to 2022， and to evaluate the impact of adjusting the varicella vaccination program to a two-dose regimen and its inclusion in the Shanghai immunization program on the incidence of varicella.
Methods Data on reported varicella cases from 2013 to 2022 in Minhang District were collected. Interrupted time series analysis and segmented regression models were used to analyze the changes in varicella incidence before and after the adjustment of varicella immunization strategies.
Results From 2013 to 2022， the average annual incidence of varicella was 76.58/100 000， with the highest incidence in 2017 （119.21/100 000） and the lowest in 2022 （27.02/100 000）. The varicella incidence exhibited seasonal patterns with peaks occurring from March to June and October to January of the following year. Prior to the adjustment of varicella immunization strategies （2013‒2017）， the varicella incidence showed an upward trend （z=2.20， P=0.03）， while after the adjustment （2018‒2022）， a adownward trend was observed （2018‒2022） （z=-2.25， P=0.02）. Interrupted time series analysis showed that following the adjustment of varicella immunization strategies， an immediate change of -33.91/100 000 （t=-4.35， P<0.001） in varicella incidence was observed， and the incidence slope was -17.59/100 000 with a decline of 28.61/100 000 （t=-12.16， P<0.001） compared to before inclusion.
Conclusion The incidence of varicella in Minhang District， Shanghai from 2013 to 2022 exhibits distinct seasonal patterns. After adjusting the varicella vaccination program to a two-dose regimen and incorporating it into the immunization program， the second dose of varicella vaccine administration substantially increases. As a result， the rising trend of varicella incidence is effectively controlled， and the incidence level decreases significantly， showing a sustained downward trend.
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