<strong>2005</strong>—<strong>2022</strong>年上海市杨浦区水痘流行病学特征及发病趋势预测

杜家玺; 秦永发; 韩雪; 陆琴; 李佳

doi:10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2023.23055

2005—2022年上海市杨浦区水痘流行病学特征及发病趋势预测

Epidemiological characteristics and prediction of varicella trends in Yangpu District， Shanghai， from 2005 to 2022

摘要

摘要:
目的分析上海市杨浦区2005—2022年的水痘流行病学特征，预测杨浦区2023年水痘疫情趋势，为防制水痘疫情暴发提供参考依据。
方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统提取上海市杨浦区2005—2022年报告的水痘病例信息，描述水痘流行病学特征。使用2005—2021年每月发病例数建立自回归求和移动平均（ARIMA）模型，以2022的水痘发病情况评价ARIMA模型拟合效果，并预测杨浦区2023年水痘疫情趋势。
结果 2005年1月—2021年12月，上海市杨浦区共报告水痘病例11 527例，剔除因重复和临床诊断后排除者114例，最终纳入分析11 413例。年均发病率为51.87/10万，发病年龄集中在20岁以下年龄组（66.5%），以学生为主（49.7%）。构建的模型为ARIMA（1，1，0）×（0，1，1）₁₂，以2022年水痘月发病数据进行模型拟合，拟合效果较好。预测显示2023年杨浦区报告水痘病例数为1 089例。
结论 2023年杨浦区水痘报告病例数预测有上升趋势，建议持续推进水痘疫苗延迟补种，提高疫苗接种率；在疫情高峰期到来之前加强对水痘相关知识的健康宣教，强化疫情防控措施，避免水痘疫情暴发。

Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Yangpu District， Shanghai from 2005 to 2022， predict the trend of varicella in Yangpu District in 2023， and provide evidence for prevention and control of varicella outbreaks.
Methods Information of varicella cases reported in Yangpu District from 2005 to 2022 was obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Descriptive statistics was used to characterize the varicella epidemiology. An autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） model was established by using the number of cases per month from 2005 to2022 to predict the trend of varicella epidemics in Yangpu District in 2023. The varicella incidence in 2022 was used to evaluate the fitness of the ARIMA model.
Results From January 2005 to December 2021， a total of 11 527 cases of varicella were reported in Yangpu District， Shanghai. After excluding duplicates and clinical diagnoses， 11 413 cases were included into the analysis. The annual average incidence rate was 51.87/10⁵， the age of onset was mainly under 20 years old （66.5%）， and the occupation was mainly students （49.7%）. The ARIMA （1，1，0）×（0，1，1）₁₂ model was constructed and showed a good fitness while using monthly reported varicella cases in 2022 for model fitting. It was predicted that 1 089 cases of varicella would be reported in Yangpu District in 2023.
Conclusion It is predicted that varicella cases in Yangpu District will increase in 2023. It is recommended to continue promoting delayed varicella vaccination to maintain a high level of vaccination rate. Before the peak of the epidemic， health education regarding varicella should be strengthened， and measures for epidemic prevention and control should be reinforced to prevent varicella outbreaks.

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