Abstract:
Objective By the use of GM(1,1) model to predict mortality trends of children under 5 years, on the basis of the analysis of cause of death in children under 5 from 2006 to 2012 in Zhabei District of Shanghai City.
Methods Nearly 5 years of monitoring data were used for analysis of the cause of death, and the grey model (GM) was used to fit and predict mortality.
Results The death of children under 5 was mainly infant death and the infant death was mainly newborns death from 2006 to 2012 in Zhabei District. During this five-year period, children mortality under 5 fluctuated from 3.30‰ to 4.98‰ and was slightly increased in 2010. The main cause of death in the neonatal period was birth asphyxia,accounting for 31.82%. For infant period,The first cause was congenital anomaly,accounting for 30.43% and the second cause was birth asphyxia,accounting for 20.29%. The fitting effect of GM was fine and the predicted mortality of children under 5 years was 3.88‰ in 2013.
Conclusion Congenital anomalies, birth asphyxia and accident death seriously threaten the lives of children under 5 years. We must strengthen neonatal screening, neonatal accidental death education, thus effectively reducing the mortality of children under 5.The fitting effect of GM(1,1) on mortality rate of children under 5 is good and can be applied for prediction.