汪红卫, 尹鹤峰, 周建军, 袁家麟, 吴健, 宁镇, 傅洁. 捕获-标记-再捕获法在男男性行为人群规模估计中的应用[J]. 上海预防医学, 2015, 27(9): 558-559.
引用本文: 汪红卫, 尹鹤峰, 周建军, 袁家麟, 吴健, 宁镇, 傅洁. 捕获-标记-再捕获法在男男性行为人群规模估计中的应用[J]. 上海预防医学, 2015, 27(9): 558-559.
The application of capture-mark-recapture method in estimating the size of Men who have sex with men population[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2015, 27(9): 558-559.
Citation: The application of capture-mark-recapture method in estimating the size of Men who have sex with men population[J]. Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2015, 27(9): 558-559.

捕获-标记-再捕获法在男男性行为人群规模估计中的应用

The application of capture-mark-recapture method in estimating the size of Men who have sex with men population

  • 摘要: 目的 估计上海市男男性行为者(MSM)人群规模。方法 采用捕获-标记-再捕获法对MSM人群进行人群规模的基数估计。通过网络调查,获取捕获-标记-再捕获法的重要参数。用滚雪球的方法招募现场调查对象,并对调查对象开展进行面对面问卷调查。结果 捕获-标记-再捕获法估计出上海市MSM人群规模的基数为86 883人(36 260人至137 506人)。结论 本市基于MSM网站和现场调查的捕获-标记-再捕获法的MSM人群规模估计方法,能满足方法的应用条件,可信度较高。

     

    Abstract: Objective To estimate the size of MSM population. Methods Using capture-mark-recapture method to estimate the base of crowd size of target population. To obtain the important parameters of the method through internet survey. To use the method of snowball to recruit investigation objects in the field and carry out a face-to-face questionnaire survey. Results The capture mark recapture result of the estimated base of the MSM population size was86883(95%CI, 36260-137506). Conclusion The method of capture mark recapture based on field and online survey met the basic conditions of their application respectively, the investigation results were highly reliable.

     

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